Loss Limits as a Predictor of Future Gambling Behavior

TL;DR

This study found that setting loss limits in 2021 predicted future gambling behavior in Norway, including more bets and higher risk gambling in 2023.

Contribution

The study demonstrates that loss limits set in a regulated gambling context can predict future gambling behavior and risk levels.

Findings

Higher loss limits predicted more bets and continued gambling.

Higher loss limits were associated with a greater likelihood of being classified as moderate-to-high risk gamblers.

Loss limits predicted lower net winnings and more frequent betting.

Abstract

In 2021, the Norwegian government implemented a policy requiring individuals gambling with the horse betting monopolist, Norsk Rikstoto, to set personal loss limits, capping the maximum loss limit at 20,000 NOK (10 NOK ∼ 1 €) per month. The present study investigated whether loss limits set in 2021 could predict gambling behavior in 2023, and whether loss limits were associated with the proportion of moderate-to-high risk gamblers. Method: The dataset encompassed the entire population of customers who participated in horse betting in 2021 and at least once in 2023, totaling 104,413 individuals (31.6% women). It included data on expenditure, net winnings, and the number of bets placed, as well as each customer’s classification within a problem gambling risk category for 2023. While no clear association was found between 2021 loss limits and 2023 gambling expenditure, higher loss limits predicted more bets, lower net winnings, continued gambling, and a greater likelihood of being classified as moderate-to-high risk gamblers by the operator’s monitoring system. Conclusion: The findings show that loss limits may be a valuable predictor of future gambling behavior at the group level.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10899-025-10446-3.

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