# Unveiling the role of interleukin-13 in liver fibrosis of chronic hepatitis B patients: Development of a predictive model

## TL;DR

This study explores how interleukin-13 affects liver stiffness in chronic hepatitis B patients and creates a model to predict it.

## Contribution

The novel contribution is a predictive model for liver stiffness in CHB patients that includes interleukin-13 alongside age and platelet count.

## Key findings

- A predictive model with R2 of 0.37 was developed using age, platelet count, and IL-13 levels.
- Elevated IL-13 and lower platelet count are associated with increased liver stiffness.
- The model met statistical criteria for reliability and normal distribution.

## Abstract

Developing a non-invasive model is essential for assessing liver stiffness in conditions without transient elastography, which will determine further management in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients.

This study aims to evaluate the interleukin-13 role in liver fibrosis and develop a new predictive model that includes interleukin-13 and standard data such as age and platelet count.

Patients were recruited from Hasan Sadikin General Hospital’s CHB registry from October 2021 to January 2022. Patients underwent demographic data collection, complete blood count, interleukin-13, and transient elastography examinations on the same day. The platelet count variable was listed in ×109/ dL, and the interleukin-13 in pg/mL. Interleukin-13 values were categorized as positive for IL-13 with a cut-off of 5 pg/mL (ILcut5). The liver stiffness measurement was inverted to obtain a normal distribution and became inverseLSM as the model’s outcome. The prediction model was formed through multiple linear regression analysis.

The number of patients studied was 88. A prediction model for inverseLSM was formulated, had an R2 of 0.37, and consisted of age, platelet count, and ILcut5 with correlation coefficients of -0.221, 0.326, and −0.288, respectively. The model had no autocorrelation, multicollinearity, or significant outliers, a normal distribution appearance, and met the homoscedastic criterion. Elevated IL-13, decreased platelet count, and aging are linked to increased liver stiffness.