Trend of liver cancer attributable to alcohol use in China from 1992 to 2021: An age-period-cohort analysis study

TL;DR

This study shows that liver cancer linked to alcohol use in China has been increasing, especially among middle-aged men, from 1992 to 2021.

Contribution

The study provides new insights into the rising trend of alcohol-attributable liver cancer in China using age-period-cohort analysis.

Findings

The incidence of alcohol-attributable liver cancer increased by 0.8% annually in China from 1992 to 2021.

Men had about double the incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer compared to women.

Individuals born between 1975 and 1985 had an 1.8-fold higher relative risk of liver cancer.

Abstract

To analyze the dynamic trends of mortality, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of liver cancer attributable to alcohol use in China from 1992 to 2021, as well as the age, period, and cohort effects, so as to provide a basis for the prevention and control.

The data were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The joinpoint regression model was used to assess the trend changes in mortality, incidence, and DALYs. The Age-Period-Cohort model was employed to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort.

From 1992 to 2021, the standardized incidence rate of liver cancer attributable to alcohol use in China increased annually by an average of 0.8% (95% CI: 0.5–1.1%), while the mortality rate rose by an average of 0.7% per year (95% CI: 0.3–1.0%), and the DALYs increased by an average of 0.6% annually (95% CI: 0.2–1.0%). The incidence and mortality rate ratio for men were approximately double those of women. The relative risk for individuals born between 1975 and 1985 increased 1.8-fold (95% CI: 1.5–2.1).

The disease burden has been on a continuous upward trend, with middle-aged men identified as high-risk groups. It is recommended to integrate liver cancer screening into the health management for high-risk populations.

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