# Researcher population pyramids: Tracking demographic and gender trajectories across countries

## TL;DR

This paper introduces a framework to track researcher demographics and gender balance across countries using publication data, revealing different patterns and future scenarios.

## Contribution

The novel contribution is a researcher population pyramid framework for analyzing demographic and gender trends in academic systems.

## Key findings

- Emerging systems like Arab countries show high researcher inflows but widening gender productivity gaps.
- Mature systems like the US have modest inflows and narrowing gender gaps.
- Rigid systems like Japan lag in both demographic and gender balance.

## Abstract

The sustainability of the academic ecosystem relies on researcher demographics and gender balance, yet assessing these dynamics in a timely manner for policy is challenging. Here, we propose a researcher population pyramid framework for tracking demographic and gender trajectories across countries using publication data. We provide a timely snapshot of historical and present demographics and gender balance across 58 countries, revealing three contrasting patterns among research systems: Emerging systems (eg Arab countries) exhibit high researcher inflows with widening gender gaps in cumulative productivity; Mature systems (eg the United States) show modest inflows with narrowing gender gaps; and Rigid systems (eg Japan) lag in both. Furthermore, by simulating future scenarios, the framework makes potential trajectories visible. If 2023 demographic patterns persist, Arab countries’ systems could resemble mature or even rigid ones by 2050. Our framework provides a robust diagnostic tool for policymakers worldwide to foster sustainable talent pipelines and gender equality in academia.