# Impact of Dobbs v. Jackson on Abortion Access in Colorado: An Analysis of Incidence and Demographic Shifts Post-Roe

## TL;DR

This paper analyzes how the Dobbs v. Jackson ruling affected abortion access in Colorado, showing increased demand from out-of-state residents and later gestation abortions.

## Contribution

The study is among the first to quantify the impact of the Dobbs decision on abortion access in a state with protective legislation.

## Key findings

- Non-resident abortions increased in Colorado after the Dobbs decision.
- The increase was driven by residents from surrounding states with restrictive abortion laws.
- Abortion gestation times increased, suggesting delays in care access.

## Abstract

To estimate the impact of the Dobbs v. Jackson decision on the number of incident abortions.

We fit an interrupted time series model to annual incident abortions from 2004 to 2023 in the state of Colorado. In addition, we computed the proportion of residents that received abortive care from outside Colorado before and after the Dobbs v. Jackson decision. Finally, we estimated the proportion of abortions over time stratified by gestation week of the mother.

We found that in the state of Colorado, after Dobbs v. Jackson (compared to before): (1) an increase in non-resident incident abortions immediately after the decision (2) which is driven by residents in the states surrounding Colorado with the most restrictive abortion laws. The uptick in non-resident abortions has likely led to longer wait times, a higher burden on facilities, and (3) later gestation times for the mother.

Shifts in abortion patterns in Colorado is evidence that the ramifications of Dobbs v. Jackson extend beyond individual state borders, impacting both state-residents and non-residents seeking care. Policymakers must consider these findings in future reproductive legislation to ensure access to abortion in protective states, such as Colorado.

This work underscores the immediate impact of healthcare legislation and the increased burden on healthcare services for states with more permissible abortion legislation.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10995-025-04216-1.

The significance of the this paper highlights the effects on abortion incidence following the Dobbs v. Jackson Supreme Court ruling. To date, many published papers on the topic of the Dobbs decision focus on the effects of those living in states with restrictive legislation. Little evidence is currently published to suggest that abortion-safe states are experiencing high demands of abortion from out-of-state residents. The deeper impacts including abortion availability in protective states, clinic wait times, and additional stress on the pregnant mother, begin to be discussed in this paper. The long term effects of the Dobbs decision remain to be unknown, however this paper begins to address the issues that have already began to arise with the creation of more anti-abortion legislation.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10995-025-04216-1.