# Trends and future projections of cancer prevalence in patients with cardiovascular admissions

## TL;DR

This study finds that cancer prevalence among patients with cardiovascular admissions is rising and predicts a significant increase by 2040, emphasizing the need for integrated care.

## Contribution

The study provides the first predictive model of cancer prevalence trends in cardiovascular admissions over the next 20 years.

## Key findings

- Cancer prevalence among cardiovascular inpatients increased from 4.8% in 2016 to 5.4% in 2020.
- Predictive modeling estimates cancer prevalence will rise to 11.9% by 2040, with liver, breast, and renal cancers showing the fastest growth.
- Haematological and lung cancers are projected to remain the most prevalent among cardiovascular inpatients.

## Abstract

Patients with cancer have an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) events, although there is limited data on future trends in cancer prevalence amongst patients with an acute cardiovascular admission. The aim of this study was to evaluate trends in cancer prevalence among CV admissions with an attempt to predict future cancer and CV co-morbidity over the next 20 years.

The analysis included all hospital admissions with a primary CV diagnosis from the US National Inpatient Sample (NIS), from 2016 to 2020. The sample was stratified by specific CV admission and by cancer status and type. The chi-square and the Kruskal–Wallis tests were used to compare categorical and continuous data, respectively, across the years. A Poisson regression model was used to predict the prevalence of overall and specific cancer types through 2040, based on the 5-year baseline period. Among 4.79 million CV admissions from 2016 to 2020, there was a significant increase in cancer prevalence from 4.8% to 5.4% (P < 0.001). This upward trend was observed across all CV diagnoses. Predictive modelling estimates that cancer prevalence in CV inpatients will increase from a 4.8% baseline in 2016 to 11.9% by 2040, with the most pronounced rate of growth seen in liver (IRR 1.069; P < 0.001), breast (IRR 1.056; P < 0.001), and renal cancer (IRR 1.055; P < 0.001). Nevertheless, haematological and lung cancers show the highest prevalence, both at baseline and in 2040.

The prevalence of cancer among patients hospitalized with CV disease is predicted to increase 2.48-fold by 2040. This trend highlights the importance of integrated cardio-oncology and multidisciplinary care models.

Graphical AbstractFor image description, please refer to the figure legend and surrounding text.