# The 12 November 2025 Ugly Duckling Geomagnetic Storm: From the Sun to the Earth

## TL;DR

A severe geomagnetic storm in November 2025 caused significant disruptions to GPS and radio systems due to solar activity.

## Contribution

The paper provides a comprehensive analysis of a G4 geomagnetic storm's effects on Earth's ionosphere and space weather systems.

## Key findings

- A super equatorial plasma bubble nearly reached the auroral oval boundary during the storm.
- GPS positioning errors increased to 2–3 meters in high-latitude and equatorial regions.
- The storm caused a prolonged and intense positive phase in the F2 layer critical frequency at mid-latitudes.

## Abstract

What are the main findings?
In November 2025, a series of consecutive coronal mass ejections associated with X-class solar flares from AR 14274 caused a severe geomagnetic storm (Kp = 9-, Dst = −217 nT and SYM-H = −254 nT). This resulted in the enhancement (up to 175 TECU) and poleward shift (8–10°) of equatorial anomaly crests, an equatorward-shifted auroral oval, and the appearance of SAR arcs and auroras at mid-latitudes.During the 12 November 2025 G4 geomagnetic storm, a super equatorial plasma bubble was recorded almost reaching the auroral oval boundary in the American sector.

In November 2025, a series of consecutive coronal mass ejections associated with X-class solar flares from AR 14274 caused a severe geomagnetic storm (Kp = 9-, Dst = −217 nT and SYM-H = −254 nT). This resulted in the enhancement (up to 175 TECU) and poleward shift (8–10°) of equatorial anomaly crests, an equatorward-shifted auroral oval, and the appearance of SAR arcs and auroras at mid-latitudes.

During the 12 November 2025 G4 geomagnetic storm, a super equatorial plasma bubble was recorded almost reaching the auroral oval boundary in the American sector.

What are the implications of the main findings?
GPS kinematic Precise Point Positioning errors increased to 2–3 m at high latitudes and in regions affected by the equatorial bubble.During the main phase, a shift in the auroral oval resulted in radio aurora and signal absorption, which limited the potential of high-frequency radars at mid-latitudes.

GPS kinematic Precise Point Positioning errors increased to 2–3 m at high latitudes and in regions affected by the equatorial bubble.

During the main phase, a shift in the auroral oval resulted in radio aurora and signal absorption, which limited the potential of high-frequency radars at mid-latitudes.

The 12 November 2025 G4 geomagnetic storm—the third most intense of solar cycle 25—was triggered by a complex shock-ICME (interplanetary coronal mass ejection) structure as a result of three ICMEs and driven shocks that arrived on 11–12 November. The main enhancement in the interplanetary magnetic field occurred in the sheath region behind the shock driven by the second ICME. The Dst index reached −217 nT (the SYM-H index reached −254 nT) and the maximum Kp index was 9-. To comprehensively analyze the causes of the storm and its complex effects on near-Earth space, we used a multi-instrumental data set, involving data from satellite missions (ACE, SDO, PROBA2), GNSS networks, ionosondes, optical instruments, high-frequency radars (SuperDARN-like), and cosmic ray monitors. The auroral oval expanded equatorward (down to ~35° N in America). We recorded a super equatorial plasma bubble that almost reached the auroral oval boundary. The equatorial anomaly crests intensified, exceeding 175 TECU, and shifted poleward (8–10°). At mid-latitudes, the F2 layer critical frequency exhibited a strong negative disturbance (−50%) during the main phase, followed by an unusually prolonged and intense positive phase (+100%). GPS Precise Point Positioning errors increased to 2–3 m at high latitudes and in regions affected by the equatorial bubble. The event also featured a Forbush decrease and ground-level enhancement (GLE 77 according to the database hosted by the University of Oulu) associated with the X5.1 solar flare. The results underscore the complex chain of processes from solar storm to geomagnetic and ionospheric responses, highlighting the risks to satellite-based navigation and communication systems.