Baseline Red Blood Cell Distribution Width as a Prognostic Marker in High-Risk Resected Cutaneous Melanoma

TL;DR

High red blood cell distribution width (RDW) is linked to worse outcomes in patients with high-risk melanoma, offering a new way to predict recurrence.

Contribution

Baseline RDW is shown as an independent prognostic marker for relapse-free survival in high-risk resected cutaneous melanoma.

Findings

High RDW was associated with significantly shorter relapse-free survival in melanoma patients.

RDW remained an independent predictor of recurrence after adjusting for other key factors.

Stage III disease was also an independent predictor of worse relapse-free survival.

Abstract

Background and Objectives: High-risk resected cutaneous melanoma carries a substantial risk of recurrence, and additional host-related prognostic biomarkers are needed beyond conventional tumor-centered factors. Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) reflects systemic inflammation and physiological stress and may provide incremental prognostic information. Materials and Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, 164 patients with stage II–III cutaneous melanoma who underwent curative-intent surgical resection were analyzed. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis determined the optimal RDW cut-off for relapse-free survival (RFS), which was 14.2%. Patients were categorized into low and high RDW groups accordingly. Survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method and compared with the log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate associations between RDW status, clinicopathological variables, and RFS. Results: During a median follow-up of 58.3 months, patients with high RDW had significantly shorter RFS compared with those with low RDW. In univariate analysis, elevated RDW was associated with an increased risk of recurrence (HR 2.79, 95% CI 1.39–5.58; p = 0.004). After adjustment for key prognostic factors (e.g., stage, Breslow, age, adjuvant therapy), high RDW remained an independent predictor of inferior RFS (HR 2.74, 95% CI 1.37–5.47; p = 0.004). Stage III disease also independently predicted worse RFS (HR 4.67, 95% CI 2.04–10.68; p < 0.001). Conclusions: Baseline RDW independently predicts RFS in high-risk resected stage II–III cutaneous melanoma and may enhance prognostic stratification using a simple, widely available biomarker.

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