Development and Validation of an Interpretable Model for Predicting Postoperative Hyperlactatemia in Young Children Following Congenital Heart Surgery

TL;DR

This study created a machine learning model to predict high lactate levels in young children after heart surgery, identifying both known and new risk factors.

Contribution

The study introduces an interpretable random forest model with novel predictors for postoperative hyperlactatemia in pediatric cardiac surgery.

Findings

The random forest model outperformed other models with an AUC of 0.821 for predicting POHL.

SHAP analysis revealed eight key predictors, including novel factors like low body weight and plasma transfusion.

The model may aid in early risk recognition and personalized care for high-risk pediatric patients.

Abstract

Objectives: Postoperative hyperlactatemia (POHL) is a common complication after pediatric cardiac surgery, yet its perioperative risk factors remain unclear. This study developed and internally validated an interpretable machine learning (ML) model to identify young children at risk for POHL. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 3224 children aged 0 to 36 months from 2018 to 2023. Four ML models, including logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), were trained and validated. Model performance was assessed using discrimination, calibration, and classification metrics, and decision curve analysis evaluated clinical utility. SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) provided both global and local interpretability. Results: Of the 3224 children, 731 (22.7%) developed POHL, with a median age of 5 months. The RF model performed best (AUC, 0.821; 95% CI, 0.787–0.854; sensitivity, 69.7%; specificity, 84.1%; Brier score, 0.146). SHAP analysis identified 8 key predictors of POHL. Established factors included cardiopulmonary bypass duration, lowest bypass temperature, epinephrine dose, and RACHS-1 category. Novel contributors comprised low body weight, reduced left ventricular end-diastolic diameter, plasma transfusion, and continued mechanical ventilation within the first 24 postoperative hours. Conclusions: We developed and internally validated an interpretable RF model that integrates established and novel predictors to estimate POHL risk in young children after cardiac surgery. Pending external validation, it may support earlier risk recognition and more personalized perioperative management in this high-risk pediatric population.

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