Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Long-Term Mortality in STEMI Patients Using Clinical, Laboratory, and Inflammatory–Metabolic Indices

TL;DR

This study uses machine learning to accurately predict long-term mortality in heart attack patients using clinical and inflammatory-metabolic data.

Contribution

The novel contribution is demonstrating that XGBoost outperforms other models and identifying ALI and TyG as strong mortality predictors.

Findings

XGBoost achieved 98.99% accuracy and 100% sensitivity in predicting mortality.

ALI score, DTBT, and albumin level were the strongest predictors identified by SHAP analysis.

Novel inflammatory-metabolic indices like ALI and TyG improved model performance beyond traditional metrics.

Abstract

Background: This study aims to compare the performance of machine learning (ML) models developed to predict long-term mortality risk in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) and to investigate the prognostic value of novel inflammatory–metabolic indices. Methods: In this retrospective study, 329 consecutive STEMI patients who underwent pPCI (292 survivors, 37 deaths) were included. Five ML algorithms—Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)—were developed for mortality prediction. Model performance was evaluated using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations) analysis was used to interpret model decision mechanisms. Results: The mortality group had significantly higher door-to-balloon time (DTBT), Systemic Inflammatory Response Index (SIRI), pan-immune-inflammation value (PIV), whereas body mass index (BMI), Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI), and Advanced Lung Cancer Inflammation Index (ALI) values were significantly lower (p < 0.001). Among the ML models, the XGBoost algorithm achieved the best performance, with 98.99% accuracy, a ROC-AUC of 0.999, and 100% sensitivity, correctly identifying all mortality cases. SHAP analysis identified DTBT, albumin level, and ALI score as the strongest predictors of mortality, in that order. Conclusions: The XGBoost algorithm provides high accuracy and reliability for predicting long-term mortality in STEMI patients. Beyond DTBT, integrating novel indices—especially ALI and TyG—into ML models may serve as a powerful clinical tool for early identification of high-risk patients and improved risk stratification.

Figures