Estimating the economic burden of diabetes in young adults: A global analysis based on the GBD 2021 and a value of statistical life year framework

TL;DR

This study estimates the global economic burden of diabetes in young adults and finds it will more than double by 2050, emphasizing the need for prevention strategies.

Contribution

The paper introduces a welfare-based approach to quantify the macroeconomic impact of diabetes in young adults globally.

Findings

The global economic burden of diabetes in young adults was Int$1.16 trillion in 2021.

The burden is projected to more than double by 2050, reaching 1.32% of global GDP.

Low-SDI regions face the highest relative burden, while high-SDI regions experience the largest absolute losses.

Abstract

The rising prevalence of diabetes in young adults threatens global health and sustainable development. However, its full macroeconomic impact, especially the welfare losses beyond conventional productivity costs, has not been systematically quantified at a global level. We aimed to estimate the current and future global economic burden of diabetes in individuals aged 15–39 years using a welfare‐based approach.

Using disability‐adjusted life‐years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we monetized health losses into a value of lost welfare (VLW) via a value of a statistical life year approach. We estimated the VLW globally, regionally and nationally, analysed its distribution by Socio‐Demographic Index (SDI) and made projections to 2050.

In 2021, the global economic burden was Int$1.16 trillion. Low‐SDI regions had the highest relative burden (1.21% of GDP), whereas high‐SDI regions had the largest absolute loss. Geographically, East Asia showed the highest absolute burden (Int$240.30 billion) and Oceania the highest relative impact (3.03% of GDP). Projections show the burden will more than double by 2050 to 1.32% of global GDP, driven almost entirely by type 2 diabetes.

Diabetes in young adults represents a significant and growing macroeconomic burden. Our findings underscore the urgent need for public health strategies and economic policies focused on preventing type 2 diabetes. Such interventions are especially critical for countries with fragile health systems to mitigate substantial future economic and health losses.

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