# A study on the equilibrium of older adult care service resources and demand in Guangzhou

## TL;DR

This study examines the imbalance between older adult care service demand and resources in Guangzhou, revealing spatial patterns that affect service equity and urban governance.

## Contribution

The paper introduces an integrated analytical framework combining multiple spatial and statistical methods to assess care service alignment in aging urban populations.

## Key findings

- Central urban districts in Guangzhou face high demand with insufficient resources, creating bottleneck zones.
- Peripheral districts have more resources than needed, leading to a reverse mismatch in service allocation.
- Transitional districts show better coordination between care demand and resource availability.

## Abstract

Population ageing in Guangzhou has continued to intensify, and the older adult population is increasingly concentrated in central urban areas. This concentration amplifies spatial mismatch between service demand and resource allocation, thereby shaping both the equity of public service provision and the capacity of urban governance.

Using district-level data on older adult care service demand and care-service resources in Guangzhou from 2015 to 2023, we develop an integrated analytical framework combining the entropy-weight method, spatial autocorrelation analysis, geographic concentration measures, and inconsistency indices. This framework is applied to identify the spatial structure of demand–resource alignment and its evolution over time.

The analysis reveals a clear core–periphery pattern. Central urban districts form structural “bottleneck zones,” characterised by high service demand and insufficient resource supply. Peripheral districts, by contrast, display a reverse mismatch: comparatively higher pre-allocated resources alongside lagging or slower-growing demand. Transitional districts between the urban core and outer areas exhibit relatively better coordination between demand and resources.

Overall, Guangzhou’s older adult care system appears to be entering a phase of structural adjustment in which misalignment is driven less by absolute scarcity alone and more by spatial configuration and cross-district spillovers. Policy priorities should therefore shift toward spatial optimisation of facilities and service capacity, strengthened cross-district coordination mechanisms, and more targeted resource allocation that responds to the evolving geography of the older population and care needs.