# Burdens of neck pain in China from 1990 to 2021 and its projection to 2050: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021

## TL;DR

This study examines the growing burden of neck pain in China from 1990 to 2021 and predicts future trends up to 2050.

## Contribution

The novel aspect is the projection of neck pain burden trends in China using the GBD 2021 data and Bayesian modeling.

## Key findings

- Neck pain burden in China increased steadily from 1990 to 2021 with age-standardized rates rising by 0.08–0.13% annually.
- The highest burden was observed in the 70–74-year-old age group and among females.
- Projections suggest a decline in neck pain burden by 2025, though sex-based differences are expected to persist.

## Abstract

This study aimed to assess the burden of neck pain from 1990 to 2021 and predict its trends over the next three decades, providing evidence for targeted interventions.

This study is a secondary analysis of publicly available national-level estimates for China from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study released by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, covering 1990–2021, with projections to 2050. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate for neck pain were calculated. Temporal trends were evaluated using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). The age-period-cohort (APC) model was employed to explore underlying drivers of disease burden, while the Bayesian-APC (BAPC) model was applied to predict future trends.

In 2021, the ASIR, ASPR, and age-standardized DALYs rate for neck pain in China were 567.23 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 448.497 – 699.796, per 100000 population), 2549.87 (95% UI: 2007.887 – 3141.637, per 100000 population), and 254.77 (95% UI: 166.889 – 357.934, per 100000 population), respectively. Between 1990 and 2021, the EAPCs for ASIR, ASPR, and age-standardized DALYs rates were 0.08% (95%CI: 0.06 – 0.11), 0.13% (95%CI: 0.10 – 0.16), and 0.13% (95%CI: 0.10 – 0.16), respectively. APC analysis identified age as the dominant contributing factor, with the highest burden observed in the 70 – 74-year age group and a consistently greater burden among females. Projections from the BAPC model suggest that ASIR, ASPR, and age-standardized DALYs rates will decline by 2025, although sex-based differences are expected to persist.

Neck pain remains a significant public health concern in China, particularly among elderly individuals and females.