Bifurcations and optimal control in Nipah virus epidemiology
Zasmin Haque, Md. Mashih Ibn Yasin Adan, Md. Sabab Zulfiker, Faizunnesa Khondaker, Md. Kamrujjaman
TL;DR
This paper develops a mathematical model to study Nipah virus spread and optimal control strategies to reduce its impact.
Contribution
A novel six-compartment model with waning immunity and optimal control analysis for Nipah virus epidemiology.
Findings
The model confirms a forward bifurcation at the epidemic threshold.
Optimal control strategies significantly reduce infection burden and costs.
Combined interventions can minimize final epidemic size and increase immunity.
Abstract
Nipah virus (NiV) is a zoonotic pathogen with a high case fatality rate, posing a significant and ongoing threat to public health in Asia. This study develops a comprehensive mathematical framework to analyze its transmission dynamics and evaluate effective control strategies. We introduce a novel six-compartment model (SEAIHR) that stratifies the population into Susceptible, Exposed, Asymptomatic, Symptomatic Infected, Hospitalized, and Recovered individuals, incorporating key features such as waning immunity. Analytical results determine the basic reproduction number and establish the global stability of both the disease-free and disease equilibria, confirming a forward bifurcation at the epidemic threshold. A sensitivity analysis identifies the recruitment rate and the disease transmission rate as the most influential parameters on outbreak potential. Furthermore, we formulate an…
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Taxonomy
TopicsVirology and Viral Diseases · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Mosquito-borne diseases and control