Prognostic value of inflammatory biochemical markers (IL-8, PCT, CRP) for cardiovascular disease in patients with pancreatitis

TL;DR

This study shows that inflammatory markers like IL-8, PCT, and CRP can predict cardiovascular disease in pancreatitis patients.

Contribution

A novel biochemical model using IL-8, PCT, and CRP for predicting CVD in pancreatitis patients is proposed.

Findings

IL-8, PCT, CRP, and age were independent predictors of CVD in pancreatitis patients.

The model had high accuracy with AUCs of 0.893 and 0.978 in training and validation sets.

Sensitivity and specificity of the model exceeded 85% across datasets.

Abstract

Patients with pancreatitis may be at increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but the biochemical mechanisms underlying this risk are not fully defined. Inflammatory biomarkers may provide valuable prognostic information.

We retrospectively analyzed 180 patients with pancreatitis (Jan 2021-Dec 2023). Serum levels of interleukin-8 (IL-8), procalcitonin (PCT), tumor necrosis factor-a (TNF-a), and C-reactive protein (CRP) were quantified using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and routine laboratory tests. Logistic regression was applied to identify independent biochemical predictors of CVD, and a risk prediction model was developed and validated using ROC curve analysis.

IL-8, PCT, CRP and age emerged as independent predictors of CVD occurrence in pancreatitis patients (all P< 0.05). The biochemical prediction model demonstrated high accuracy, with an AUC of 0.893 in the training set and 0.978 in the validation set. Sensitivity and specificity exceeded 85% across datasets.

This study highlights the clinical and laboratory significance of inflammatory biomarkers in pancreatitis. The proposed biochemical model provides a reliable tool for predicting cardiovascular risk and may contribute to improved laboratory-guided risk assessment and patient management.

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