COVID-19 vaccination and short-term mortality risk: a nationwide self-controlled case series study in The Netherlands

TL;DR

A nationwide study in the Netherlands found that COVID-19 vaccination is associated with lower short-term mortality risk compared to unvaccinated periods.

Contribution

This study provides evidence that primary and booster vaccinations are linked to reduced short-term mortality risk across diverse populations.

Findings

Primary vaccination was associated with a 44% lower relative incidence of all-cause deaths in the first three weeks.

Booster vaccination showed a similar reduction in mortality risk (IRR 0.49).

SARS-CoV-2 infection was linked to a 16-fold higher mortality risk in the three weeks following infection.

Abstract

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic partly exceeded COVID-19-related deaths, indicating that other causes may have contributed. We conducted a retrospective data-linkage study including all Dutch inhabitants to investigate the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on excess mortality using a modified self-controlled case series method. We found a 44% lower relative incidence of all-cause deaths in the first three weeks after the primary vaccination compared to more than three weeks after vaccination (IRR 0.56, 95%CI 0.54–0.57). This lower incidence was consistent across vaccine types, doses, genders, age groups, and individuals with or without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection or comorbidities, and for non-COVID-19 related deaths. For booster vaccinations, the relative incidence was similar (IRR 0.49, 95%CI 0.49–0.50). In comparison, we observed a 16-fold higher incidence of all-cause deaths in the three weeks following a registered positive SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to more than three weeks after infection (IRR 16.19, 95%CI 15.78–16.60). A lower relative incidence of short-term deaths following COVID-19 vaccination support that COVID-19 vaccination is not associated with the observed excess mortality.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10654-025-01334-6.

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