Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming
Ricarda Winkelmann, Julius Garbe, Jonathan F. Donges, Torsten Albrecht
TL;DR
The paper shows that different parts of the Antarctic Ice Sheet have unique tipping points for ice loss, which could lead to significant sea-level rise under global warming.
Contribution
The study identifies distinct tipping thresholds for individual Antarctic drainage basins, revealing that ice loss is not uniform across the ice sheet.
Findings
A first tipping threshold of 1–2 °C warming triggers collapse of ~40% of marine ice in West Antarctica.
East Antarctic marine sectors risk instability at 2–5 °C warming, potentially raising sea levels by ~5 m.
The ice sheet behaves as multiple interacting tipping systems rather than a single tipping element.
Abstract
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is subject to amplifying feedbacks which can accelerate ice loss and lead to effectively irreversible retreat. We here analyse the distinct nature and risk of long-term ice loss for each individual drainage basin under different levels of warming. Depending on topographic and climatic conditions, we find that ice loss in some basins unfolds gradually with warming, whereas other basins are characterized by a critical threshold or tipping point beyond which large parts eventually disintegrate. A first threshold, potentially as low as 1–2 °C above pre-industrial levels, triggers the long-term collapse of ~40% of marine ice volume in West Antarctica. Marine-based sectors in East Antarctica, representing ~5 m of potential sea-level rise, are at risk of losing stability at 2–5 °C. Our results imply that the Antarctic Ice Sheet does not act as one single tipping…
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Taxonomy
TopicsCryospheric studies and observations · Polar Research and Ecology · Geology and Paleoclimatology Research