# All-cause health-adjusted life expectancy in Jiangxi Province, China, 2000–2030: systematic estimation and analysis

## TL;DR

This study estimates health-adjusted life expectancy in Jiangxi Province, China, from 2000 to 2030, finding it will meet national health targets but with gender and age disparities.

## Contribution

A simplified model using three provincial health indicators to estimate disability burden and project HALE progress toward national targets.

## Key findings

- HALE in Jiangxi is projected to reach 71.6 years by 2030, meeting the Healthy China 2030 target.
- Women have higher life expectancy but accumulate more unhealthy years compared to men.
- YLD rates decreased in younger age groups but increased among those aged ≥80 years.

## Abstract

Using Jiangxi Province as a case study, this research aims to evaluate the progress in achieving the national “Healthy China 2030” all-cause health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) targets at the subnational level.

Based on provincial data collected between 2000 and 2020, we applied a simplified, validated model to estimate all-cause years lived with disability (YLD) rates. HALE was then calculated using the Sullivan method with provincial abridged life tables. Values for 2021–2030 were projected using the Lee-Carter and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. Missing data were handled via spline interpolation, and uncertainty was quantified via Monte Carlo simulation.

All-cause HALE in Jiangxi increased by 7.8 years from 2000 to 2020 and is projected to reach 71.6 years by 2030, meeting the national target despite a recent slowdown in growth. YLD rates declined in younger age groups but rose among those aged ≥80 years. Women consistently showed higher life expectancy and HALE than men, but accumulated more unhealthy life-years.

Jiangxi Province is on track to achieve the “Healthy China 2030” HALE target. Persistent age and gender disparities highlight the need for tailored interventions—particularly for women and the growing elderly population—to improve health-related quality of life.

•Health-adjusted life expectancy in Jiangxi is projected to reach 71.6 years by 2030.•A simplified model estimates disability burden from three provincial health indicators.•Women live longer but spend more years in poor health than men.

Health-adjusted life expectancy in Jiangxi is projected to reach 71.6 years by 2030.

A simplified model estimates disability burden from three provincial health indicators.

Women live longer but spend more years in poor health than men.