# Temporal trends in prevalence of chronic liver disease among women of childbearing age from 1992 to 2021

## TL;DR

This study examines how chronic liver disease prevalence has changed over 30 years among women of childbearing age, finding a generally adverse global trend.

## Contribution

The study introduces a comprehensive age-period-cohort model to analyze CLD trends among women of childbearing age globally from 1992 to 2021.

## Key findings

- Global CLD prevalence increased by 0.057% per year from 1992 to 2021.
- High sociodemographic index regions showed more increasing CLD trends in specific age groups.
- Period risks were more adverse in non-low sociodemographic index regions.

## Abstract

Chronic liver disease (CLD) is a leading cause of global mortality. This study aimed to comprehensively analyze the temporal trends in CLD prevalence among women of childbearing age (WCBA) over a 30-year period.

An age-period-cohort (APC) model was developed to assess the overall annual percentage change [net drift (ND), % per year] and the annual percentage change within distinct age groups (local drift, % per year) in CLD prevalence from 1992 to 2021. The APC model incorporated longitudinal age-specific rates, adjusting for deviations across time periods (age effects), as well as period/cohort relative risks (period/cohort effects).

From 1992 to 2021, the global ND in CLD prevalence among WCBA was 0.057% per year [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.029%–0.084%], with regional variation ranging from −0.27% to 0.66%. Local drift analysis indicated that age groups with increasing prevalence were more prominent in high sociodemographic index region (SDIR), while those with decreasing prevalence were more common in low SDIR. Age effects showed consistent patterns across SDIRs, with risk increasing progressively with age. Period risks were relatively lower in low SDIR, while more adverse period risks were observed in other regions. Additionally, improvements in prevalence were seen across birth cohorts in all regions.

Over the past three decades, the global prevalence of CLD among WCBA has predominantly exhibited an adverse trend. Targeted advancements in prevention, management, and treatment of CLD are essential to mitigate relative risks for successive birth cohorts.