# Phylogeographic and Potential Distribution of Wild Apricot (Prunus armeniaca) in Xinjiang: Insights From Chloroplast/Nuclear DNA and Ecological Niche Modeling

## TL;DR

This study explores the genetic diversity and potential future habitat of wild apricots in Xinjiang using DNA analysis and ecological modeling.

## Contribution

The study integrates chloroplast and nuclear DNA data with ecological niche modeling to reveal contrasting genetic patterns and future habitat projections in wild apricots.

## Key findings

- Chloroplast DNA showed weak population differentiation and contraction/bottleneck dynamics, while nuclear DNA indicated recent expansion in Yining County.
- Ecological niche modeling identified precipitation and soil sand content as key factors influencing wild apricot distribution.
- Future climate scenarios project an expansion of suitable habitat for wild apricots in Xinjiang.

## Abstract

As the wild progenitor of cultivated apricot, Xinjiang wild apricot is a key resource for ecosystem stability and germplasm conservation. We analyzed its phylogeography in the Ili wild fruit forests using two chloroplast DNA regions (rpl32‐trnL, ndhC‐trnV) and one single‐copy nuclear locus (DXH). Genetic variation was mainly within populations, with weak among‐population differentiation. cpDNA and nuclear data showed discordant spatial patterns, indicating different demographic signals from seed‐mediated versus pollen‐mediated processes. cpDNA neutrality and mismatch analyses did not support recent overall expansion and were more consistent with contraction/bottleneck dynamics, although the dominant cpDNA lineage (h4) retained a post‐LGM expansion signal (~19.6 ka). In contrast, DXH supported recent expansion, strongest in the Yining County population. Isolation‐by‐distance was significant for cpDNA but weak and nonsignificant for DXH, consistent with stronger geographic structuring of maternally inherited variation. MaxEnt models identified precipitation in the wettest season (100–135 mm), precipitation in the warmest season (90–120 mm), and soil sand content (6%–38%) as key predictors of distribution. Suitable habitat is currently concentrated in the Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture, with projected expansion under future climate scenarios. These results provide an integrated view of historical demography and contemporary habitat suitability, and offer a basis for conservation planning and sustainable use of Xinjiang wild apricot genetic resources.

This study employed integrated analyses of chloroplast DNA and nuclear genes, which revealed significant divergence in genetic structure between the two genomic compartments in Xinjiang wild apricots, reflecting complex evolutionary processes influenced by natural selection, genetic drift, and gene flow. Population history analyses indicated an absence of significant expansion in the maternal lineages, representing a potential bottleneck event, whereas nuclear data provided evidence of recent expansion, most prominently in the Yining County population. Additionally, ecological niche modeling projected an expansion of the species' suitable habitat under future climate scenarios.