A systematic review and meta-analysis of Zika virus epidemiology

TL;DR

This paper reviews global data on Zika virus to better understand its spread, effects on pregnancy, and transmission patterns.

Contribution

The study provides a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis of Zika virus epidemiology with global data and standardized reporting.

Findings

Zika virus causes congenital syndrome in 4.65% of cases and pregnancy loss in 2.48%.

Symptomatic cases of Zika virus range from 38% to 64%.

Epidemiological delays like incubation and infectious periods vary widely across regions.

Abstract

Zika virus (ZIKV), classified as a priority pathogen by the World Health Organization, is an Aedes-borne arbovirus that can cause neurological complications and birth defects in newborns of mothers infected during pregnancy. We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed studies reporting ZIKV epidemiological parameters, transmission models and outbreaks (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) to characterize its transmissibility, seroprevalence, risk factors, disease sequelae and natural history. We performed meta-analyses of the proportions of congenital Zika syndrome, pregnancy loss among ZIKV-infected mothers and symptomatic cases. We extracted information from 574 studies. Across 418 included studies assigned a high-quality score, we extracted 969 parameters, 127 outbreak records and 154 models. Using random-effects models, we estimated proportions of congenital Zika syndrome (4.65%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.38–6.67%), pregnancy loss (2.48%, 95% CI: 1.62–3.78%) and symptomatic cases (51.20%, 95% CI: 38.00–64.23%). Seroprevalence estimates (n = 354) were retrieved beyond South America and French Polynesia. Basic reproduction number estimates (n = 77) ranged between 1.12 and 7.4. We found 66 human epidemiological delay estimates, including the intrinsic incubation period (n = 11, range: 4–12.1 days), infectious period (n = 15, range: 3–50 days), extrinsic incubation period (n = 22, range: 5.1–24.2 days) and serial interval (n = 27, range: 7.4–32.9 days).

These data are available in the R package ‘epireview’ (version 1.4.5). We provide a comprehensive systematic summary of ZIKV epidemiology, revealing large heterogeneities and inconsistencies in the reporting of parameter estimates, study designs and parameter definitions and underscoring the need for standardized epidemiological definitions.

A systematic review including 574 studies extracts information about transmissibility, epidemiological delays and outbreaks for Zika virus disease at global scale.

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