# Bovine brucellosis seropositivity in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, 2021–2024: Temporal, and spatial trends

## TL;DR

This study analyzed bovine brucellosis trends in South Africa's Mpumalanga Province from 2021 to 2024, finding seasonal and spatial variations that can guide targeted control efforts.

## Contribution

The study provides detailed subnational epidemiological data on bovine brucellosis in Mpumalanga, identifying temporal, seasonal, and spatial patterns for improved surveillance.

## Key findings

- Bovine brucellosis seroprevalence peaked at 13.1% in 2023 and declined to 7.5% in 2024.
- Higher seroprevalence was observed in spring and summer compared to autumn and winter.
- Emalahleni, Victor Khanye, and Mbombela were identified as high-burden municipalities.

## Abstract

Bovine brucellosis, caused primarily by Brucella abortus, remains a major constraint to livestock productivity and a persistent zoonotic threat. Although brucellosis is a controlled disease in South Africa, detailed subnational epidemiological evidence is limited, particularly for Mpumalanga Province. Understanding temporal, seasonal, and spatial patterns is essential for improving risk-based surveillance and control.

A retrospective cross-sectional analysis was conducted using routine diagnostic records from the Mpumalanga Provincial Veterinary Laboratory between January 2021 and December 2024. Rose Bengal Test (RBT) results from cattle originating from 17 Local Municipality Areas (LMAs) were analysed. Annual, seasonal, and spatial seroprevalence estimates were calculated, and independent predictors of RBT seropositivity were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression.

A total of 67,974 cattle serum samples were tested, of which 6,182 were RBT-positive, yielding an overall seroprevalence of 9.1% (95% CI: 8.9–9.3). Annual seroprevalence increased from 6.9% in 2021 to 7.4% in 2022, peaked at 13.1% in 2023, and declined to 7.5% in 2024. Clear seasonal variation was observed, with higher seroprevalence in spring (10.6%) and summer (10.2%) compared with autumn (6.8%) and winter (6.9%). Pronounced spatial heterogeneity was evident, with Emalahleni (13.3%), Victor Khanye (13.0%), and Mbombela (12.0%) identified as high-burden municipalities, while Mkhondo (1.7%) and Albert Luthuli (2.7%) recorded the lowest prevalence. In adjusted analyses, testing in 2023 was associated with nearly double the odds of seropositivity compared with 2021 (AOR 1.95; 95% CI: 1.81–2.11), and spring and summer remained significant predictors.

Bovine brucellosis in Mpumalanga exhibits marked temporal variability, seasonal peaks, and spatial clustering. These findings support targeted, risk-based surveillance, strategically timed vaccination, and strengthened biosecurity, prioritising hotspot municipalities and high-risk seasons within a One Health framework.