Making water knowledge with Artificial Intelligence: A qualitative study of expert interviews on water diplomacy

TL;DR

This study explores how AI impacts water diplomacy by analyzing expert interviews, highlighting both opportunities and risks.

Contribution

The paper introduces a qualitative analysis of AI's role in water diplomacy, emphasizing its dual potential for cooperation and conflict.

Findings

AI can improve data objectivity and social learning in water negotiations.

AI risks eroding trust and spreading misinformation if political challenges are unaddressed.

Malicious AI use may escalate tensions over water disputes.

Abstract

Water knowledge, understanding the current and future availability and needs of water, has been critical in negotiating international water disputes. Drawing from expert interviews, this article examines how Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools influence knowledge production and exchange in water diplomacy. The findings suggest that technical strides from AI technologies can enhance data and information objectivity and social learning, potentially benefiting water negotiations and consensus building. However, without addressing political and human challenges, AI tools can exacerbate the risk of eroding trust and spreading dis- and mis-information about politically sensitive water issues. The malicious use of AI poses a serious risk, as negotiators may face increased pressure from public opinion, potentially undermining cooperative progress and escalating tensions over water.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-025-02272-z.