# Cohorts of immature Pteropus bats show interannual variation in Hendra virus serology

## TL;DR

A 4-year study of Pteropus bats found that seasonal birth pulses of young bats do not drive Hendra virus transmission, challenging previous assumptions about outbreak patterns.

## Contribution

The study provides new evidence that Hendra virus outbreaks are not primarily driven by seasonal birth pulses of immunologically naïve juveniles.

## Key findings

- Two out of three cohorts showed reduced maternal antibody transfer compared to the 2018 cohort.
- Bartonella infection rates were consistent across cohorts, indicating stable transmission opportunities.
- No clear evidence of synchronized seroconversion was observed in the early sampling timepoints.

## Abstract

Understanding the drivers of seasonal disease outbreaks remains a fundamental challenge in disease ecology. Periodic outbreaks can be driven by several seasonally varying factors, including pulses of susceptible individuals through births, changes in host behaviour and social aggregation and variation in host immunity. However, when these potential drivers overlap temporally, isolating their relative contributions to outbreak patterns becomes challenging.We studied Hendra virus, a zoonotic pathogen with seasonal spillovers from bats to horses and humans. Multiple seasonal factors have been hypothesized to drive Hendra virus transmission, including food shortages, birth pulses and changes in host aggregation, but their temporal overlap has made identifying primary drivers difficult.We conducted a 4‐year longitudinal study of Pteropus bats to test whether seasonal birth pulses and the resulting influx of susceptible juveniles drive Hendra virus transmission. Using a Bayesian ageing model, we aged sexually immature bats and placed them into birth cohorts. We used our age predictions to model how viral shedding and antibody responses changed as bats aged. We tracked Bartonella spp. Infection—a bacterial pathogen requiring close contact for transmission—as an indicator of transmission opportunities within each cohort for comparison.We found no evidence that seasonal birth pulses of immunologically naïve juveniles drove Hendra virus transmission. Two out of three cohorts showed substantially reduced maternal antibody transfer compared to the 2018 cohort, with seroprevalence near zero at our earliest sampling timepoints and showed no clear evidence of synchronized seroconversion. Furthermore, Bartonella infection rates were consistent across cohorts, indicating that opportunities for pathogen transmission remained consistent across cohorts despite varying viral shedding patterns.Our findings demonstrate that birth pulses alone cannot explain observed patterns of Hendra virus outbreaks. These results highlight the importance of using multiple lines of evidence to evaluate competing mechanisms underlying seasonal disease dynamics, particularly when potential drivers coincide temporally.

Understanding the drivers of seasonal disease outbreaks remains a fundamental challenge in disease ecology. Periodic outbreaks can be driven by several seasonally varying factors, including pulses of susceptible individuals through births, changes in host behaviour and social aggregation and variation in host immunity. However, when these potential drivers overlap temporally, isolating their relative contributions to outbreak patterns becomes challenging.

We studied Hendra virus, a zoonotic pathogen with seasonal spillovers from bats to horses and humans. Multiple seasonal factors have been hypothesized to drive Hendra virus transmission, including food shortages, birth pulses and changes in host aggregation, but their temporal overlap has made identifying primary drivers difficult.

We conducted a 4‐year longitudinal study of Pteropus bats to test whether seasonal birth pulses and the resulting influx of susceptible juveniles drive Hendra virus transmission. Using a Bayesian ageing model, we aged sexually immature bats and placed them into birth cohorts. We used our age predictions to model how viral shedding and antibody responses changed as bats aged. We tracked Bartonella spp. Infection—a bacterial pathogen requiring close contact for transmission—as an indicator of transmission opportunities within each cohort for comparison.

We found no evidence that seasonal birth pulses of immunologically naïve juveniles drove Hendra virus transmission. Two out of three cohorts showed substantially reduced maternal antibody transfer compared to the 2018 cohort, with seroprevalence near zero at our earliest sampling timepoints and showed no clear evidence of synchronized seroconversion. Furthermore, Bartonella infection rates were consistent across cohorts, indicating that opportunities for pathogen transmission remained consistent across cohorts despite varying viral shedding patterns.

Our findings demonstrate that birth pulses alone cannot explain observed patterns of Hendra virus outbreaks. These results highlight the importance of using multiple lines of evidence to evaluate competing mechanisms underlying seasonal disease dynamics, particularly when potential drivers coincide temporally.

Pteropus bat with offspring, photo taken by Manuel Ruiz‐Aravena.