# Undamped climate change poses the need for substantial shifts in cultivated crop types in Germany

## TL;DR

Climate change will force German agriculture to shift to Mediterranean crops by the end of the century, requiring major adaptations.

## Contribution

A high-resolution climate analogue approach is used to forecast agricultural shifts in Germany under undamped climate change.

## Key findings

- Southern Germany will see a shift toward Mediterranean crops by 2100.
- Higher elevations may retain current climate conditions, while lower areas face Mediterranean-like climates.
- Current common crops will become less viable under projected climate changes.

## Abstract

Numerous studies have highlighted the severe implications of climate change for agriculture across the planet, due to shifting climate patterns, heat waves, flood and drought events. Combining state-of-the-art high-resolution observational and model-based climate data with elaborate land use data and the method of climate analogues now allows to foreshadow future agricultural landscapes, anticipating adaptational and transformational needs towards enhanced climate resilience of regional agriculture. The approach is exemplified for a highly diversified farming area in southern Germany. Until the end of the 21st century a clear shift towards typical Mediterranean crops prevails, while many of today’s common crops are expected to become less important. Only higher-elevation parts are projected to face climate analogues in Germany itself, whereas most subregions may exhibit climate conditions that are nowadays found in the northern Mediterranean area. Altogether, undamped climate change will require a radical transformation of the German agricultural sector.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1038/s41598-026-42040-x.