# Conflict monitoring with VIIRS Nightfire: the war in Ukraine

## TL;DR

This paper shows how satellite thermal data can help monitor conflicts, using the war in Ukraine as a case study.

## Contribution

The novel use of VIIRS Nightfire data combined with geospatial tools to monitor conflict dynamics in real-time.

## Key findings

- Nighttime thermal anomalies from VIIRS can track industrial activity and frontline shifts in conflict zones.
- Combining VIIRS data with territorial control data improves urban combat detection.
- The method enables low-cost, scalable conflict monitoring despite VIIRS limitations.

## Abstract

Amid rising geopolitical instability, timely, systematic, and independent monitoring of conflict zones is essential. We show how nighttime thermal anomalies from spaceborne sensors can be combined with boundary data, territorial control vector data, and high-resolution damage assessments to generate indicators of conflict at different levels of analysis. Leveraging the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite’s Nightfire product, we extract signals of conflict across Ukraine, tracking the status of heavy industry, delineating the frontline, and detecting urban combat. Although VIIRS data face challenges such as low spatial resolution and susceptibility to atmospheric interference, we find that these can provide valuable insights when paired with supporting geodata. Our results thus support fast, low-cost, and scalable monitoring of conflict zones, enabling timely intelligence in rapidly evolving scenarios.