# Arrests and the Opioid Epidemic: An Investigation into the Spatial and Social Network Spillover of Opioid Overdoses in Chicago

## TL;DR

This study explores how opioid arrests in Chicago affect overdose rates in nearby areas and communities, finding that arrests can both prevent and displace overdoses.

## Contribution

The study introduces a novel analysis of spatial and social spillover effects of opioid arrests on overdose rates using fixed effects spatial autoregressive models.

## Key findings

- Opioid overdose risk can diffuse or displace due to arrests in nearby areas.
- Arrests may also spread overdose-reducing benefits depending on the type of crime.
- Spatial and social spillover mechanisms both prevent and propagate overdoses.

## Abstract

This study investigates the role of criminal justice intervention practices, i.e., opioid arrests, in effectively preventing or increasing opioid overdoses, paying particular attention to whether arrests in spatially proximate or socially connected communities lead to the displacement or prevention of opioid overdoses in a local community.

Combining data from the Cook County medical examiner, emergency medical services information, arrest reports, and commuting network statistics for Chicago’s 77 community areas between 2016 and 2019, this study uses fixed effects spatial autoregressive models with spatial lags to explain community-level opioid overdose rates.

We find evidence for the diffusion and displacement of overdose risk as well as the diffusion of overdose-reducing benefits. Findings suggest complex spatial and social spillover mechanisms that both diffuse and prevent opioid overdoses, dependent on the type of opioid-related crime and overdose rate investigated.

These results have important implications for understanding the effectiveness of criminal justice policies in their goal of preventing opioid-related crime and overdoses and provide insights for designing more appropriate and effective policy responses to address substance use and illicit drug markets.