# The Potential Impact of Federal Funding Cuts on Access to Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis in Atlanta, Georgia: Geographic Modeling Study

## TL;DR

This study shows that closing community-based PrEP clinics in Atlanta could reduce access to HIV prevention, especially for Black communities.

## Contribution

The study uses geographic modeling to quantify how CBO closures affect PrEP access by race and transportation mode.

## Key findings

- 732 census block groups experienced increased transit times to PrEP clinics after CBO closures.
- Black-plurality areas had higher odds of increased drive times compared to White-plurality areas.
- Over 1 million residents faced worsened transit access to PrEP services in simulated scenarios.

## Abstract

Despite major biomedical advances in HIV testing, prevention, and treatment, annual HIV transmissions in the United States remain above 30,000. Geographic access to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is critical to HIV prevention efforts, particularly in regions with high HIV burdens, such as metro-Atlanta. Community-based organizations (CBOs) play a central role in delivering culturally competent prevention services, yet many rely on federal funding that is increasingly unstable. Understanding the potential impact of CBO closures on geographic access to PrEP is essential for anticipating inequities and informing policy.

The aim of this study was to estimate how hypothetical closures of federally funded CBOs providing PrEP affect geographic access to PrEP clinics by car and public transit across metro-Atlanta and to assess whether impacts differ by community racial/ethnic composition.

We identified 71 PrEP-providing clinics in metro-Atlanta (August 2025), including 12 CBOs. Using 3 simulated closure scenarios in which 25% of CBOs were randomly closed, we calculated one-way travel times from 2466 census block group (CBG) centroids to the nearest PrEP-providing clinic. Travel times were estimated for car and public transit across 3 weekdays and timepoints and then averaged per CBG. Two-sided paired t tests were used to compare the change in travel time compared to baseline. Logistic regression assessed associations between racial/ethnic plurality and increased travel times.

Under baseline conditions, 100% of CBGs had car access to a PrEP clinic within 30 minutes compared to only 41.6% (1027/2466) via public transit. Across closure scenarios, 732 CBGs (29.6%; representing over 1 million residents) experienced increased transit times (mean increase 1.2 minutes; range 0.0-11.6; P<.001), and 7 CBGs lost transit access entirely. For car travel, 1184 CBGs (48%; representing approximately 1.7 million residents) experienced increased drive times (mean increase 0.5 minutes; range 0.0-6.4; P=.03). Black-plurality CBGs had higher odds of increased drive times compared to White-plurality CBGs (odds ratio 1.37, 95% CI 1.15-1.63).

Even limited closure of CBO PrEP providers meaningfully reduces geographic access to HIV prevention services, disproportionately affecting communities already experiencing transportation and HIV-related vulnerabilities. Sustained federal investment in CBOs is essential to preserve equitable PrEP access and prevent avoidable HIV infections.