# Probabilistic functionality assessment of road networks for medical emergency vehicles during flooding

## TL;DR

This study assesses how flooding affects road networks for emergency vehicles, showing that SUVs and emergency vehicles face lower flood risk than regular cars.

## Contribution

The study introduces a probabilistic method to evaluate road network functionality for emergency vehicles during floods.

## Key findings

- SUVs and emergency vehicles have lower flood risk compared to cars in road networks.
- Bristol's city center shows higher flood risk, limiting emergency vehicle access to high-risk areas.
- The research provides strategies to prepare emergency services for flood impacts on road networks.

## Abstract

Flood damage to road networks primarily manifests as a loss of transportation functionality. Current analyses of road network functionality loss during floods are based on specific flood scenarios. This study analyses flood risk to road networks by assessing the probability of stability loss for various vehicle types (SUVs/emergency vehicles, and cars). Eventually, a flood risk map of the road network is generated. The flood risk of each road is computed as reduced accessibility, measured in this paper via isochrones. Bristol (UK) is used as the case study area, with all hospitals as starting points to study the coverage area of emergency vehicles within a given time frame. The results indicate that road network functionality for SUVs/emergency vehicles has a lower flood risk than that for cars. Additionally, the city centre of Bristol exhibits a higher flood risk, hindering emergency medical vehicles from reaching high-risk flood areas. The findings of this research offer strategies to mitigate the impact of floods on road networks and prepare emergency medical services before flood disasters occur.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-026-08005-z.