# Human Cytomegalovirus Serostatus Defines Cytokine-Based Predictive Signatures in Sepsis

## TL;DR

This study shows that human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) infection status affects which cytokines predict survival in sepsis patients.

## Contribution

The study demonstrates that HCMV serostatus defines distinct cytokine-based predictive signatures for sepsis outcomes.

## Key findings

- A four-cytokine panel predicted 30-day survival with moderate accuracy in the overall sepsis cohort.
- HCMV-seropositive patients had a more accurate two-cytokine model (IL-10, IL-23) for survival prediction.
- Cytokine models in HCMV-seronegative patients did not generalize well and showed poor predictive power.

## Abstract

(1) Background: Sepsis is characterized by profound heterogeneity of immune responses, complicating biomarker-based prediction of clinical outcomes. Latent human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) infection is one of the strongest modulators of the human immune system and may influence cytokine-mediated signaling during sepsis. (2) Methods: In this post hoc analysis of 331 patients from the prospective multicenter SepsisDataNet.NRW cohort (German Clinical Trial Registry No. DRKS00018871), we quantified 13 serum cytokines on day 1 after sepsis diagnosis and determined HCMV IgG serostatus via ELISA. Using nested cross-validated logistic regression with exhaustive feature selection, we identified cytokine panels predictive of 30-day survival in the total cohort and in subgroups stratified by HCMV serostatus. (3) Results: In the total cohort, a four-cytokine panel (IL-6, IL-10, TNF-α, IL-12p70) predicted 30-day survival with a cross-validated area under the curve (AUC) of 0.66 [95% CI: 0.59–0.72]. Stratification by HCMV serostatus revealed distinct predictive profiles: in HCMV-seropositive patients, a two-cytokine model (IL-10, IL-23) achieved an AUC of 0.69 [95% CI: 0.61–0.77], whereas in seronegative patients, a model based on IL-8 and IL-17A failed to generalize (AUC = 0.47 [95% CI: 0.33–0.61]). Kaplan–Meier analysis confirmed a significant separation of survival curves for the HCMV-seropositive group (p < 0.001) but not for seronegative patients (p = 0.282). (4) Conclusions: HCMV serostatus defines an immunological context in which cytokine-based prediction of sepsis outcome becomes feasible. These data suggest that viral serostatus should be systematically incorporated into biomarker discovery and immunophenotyping approaches to improve the reproducibility and biological interpretability of sepsis endotyping.