Can Non-Conventional Blood Biomarkers Improve Running Performance Prediction? A Proof of Concept

TL;DR

This study explores if blood biomarkers like decorin can improve predictions of running performance beyond traditional measures like VO2max.

Contribution

The study introduces the potential of non-conventional blood biomarkers to enhance performance prediction in runners.

Findings

The Cooper test caused significant changes in decorin, hypoxanthine, and BDNF.

Higher post-test decorin and hypoxanthine were linked to faster Cooper test performance.

Adding decorin to conventional predictors slightly reduced 10 km race time prediction error.

Abstract

Conventional measures such as maximal oxygen uptake (V˙O2max), although widely regarded as the gold standard, do not fully capture endurance performance. Therefore, this study investigated whether a 2.4 km Cooper test elicits measurable changes in blood-based biomarkers (decorin, hypoxanthine, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF)) and whether integrating these markers may improve performance prediction in a heterogeneous sample of runners. In this cross-sectional observational proof-of-concept study, thirty-three participants completed the 2.4 km Cooper test, with venous blood samples collected at baseline and post-test. Non-parametric statistical tests were used to assess biomarker changes (α = 0.05), with exploratory correlations evaluated using Spearman’s ρ. To examine whether blood-based biomarkers provide information beyond conventional field-based predictors, Ridge regression with leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) was applied to predict 10 km race time in a subsample of 24 participants who completed a 10 km race two weeks later. The Cooper test elicited significant post-test changes in decorin, hypoxanthine, and BDNF (all p < 0.001). Higher post-test decorin (ρ = −0.44, p = 0.010) and hypoxanthine (ρ = −0.37, p = 0.034) were associated with faster Cooper test performance. In Ridge regression analysis, adding post-test decorin to conventional predictors resulted in a minor reduction of 10 km race time prediction error. This study suggests that decorin may provide complementary information to a conventional field-based test in heterogeneous recreational runners. Post-test decorin marginally contributed to 10 km race performance prediction beyond established predictors, though external validation and comparison with directly measured V˙O2max are needed before practical application can be recommended.

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