# Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Flower Bud Fly (Dasiops saltans) in Pitahaya Cultivation in Northern Peru Under Climate Change Scenarios

## TL;DR

This study predicts the current and future distribution of the flower bud fly in pitahaya crops in northern Peru, considering climate change.

## Contribution

The study provides new insights into the environmental factors influencing the distribution of Dasiops saltans under current and future climate scenarios.

## Key findings

- The flower bud fly is closely associated with specific temperature, terrain, and soil conditions.
- Current pitahaya cultivation areas are already in environments favorable to the pest.
- Future climate projections suggest a relatively stable distribution with local changes.

## Abstract

Pitahaya is a high-value crop in northern Peru. Its production is seriously affected by the flower bud fly (Dasiops saltans), an insect that damages flowers and reduces fruit formation. Knowing the areas where this pest is most likely to occur currently and how its distribution might change in the future is essential to support decision-making by farmers and authorities. This study used environmental information to identify areas suitable for the presence of Dasiops saltans under current conditions and future climate scenarios. The results indicate that the species is closely associated with certain temperature patterns, terrain characteristics and soil conditions, and that many areas dedicated to pitahaya cultivation are already located in environments favourable to the pest. Climate projections suggest that its overall distribution could remain relatively stable, although with possible local changes. These findings provide useful information for improving pest monitoring and management planning, helping to reduce agricultural losses and strengthen the sustainability of pitahaya production in the region.

Dasiops saltans is a small insect pest associated with pitahaya cultivation, whose occurrence is strongly influenced by specific environmental conditions. This study examined where this species could live in the Amazonas region by using models that identify areas with favourable conditions. With this approach, the current and future distribution of the insect was estimated, considering possible changes in climate. The results show that the places with the best conditions for the species may decrease slightly in the coming decades, while most of the region will continue to be unfavorable for its presence. The study also identified which environmental factors most influence where the insect can survive, highlighting the role of the terrain, soil characteristics and climate conditions related to temperature and moisture. These findings help us better understand the environmental limits of Dasiops saltans and provide useful information for decision-makers, farmers and local authorities, who can use this knowledge to improve management, monitoring and prevention strategies in agricultural areas.