# Zoning of Integrated Quality Regions for Alpinia officinarum Hance Based on a Multi-Model Evaluation System

## TL;DR

This study identifies key regions for growing a medicinal plant in China under future climate change by combining habitat and quality modeling.

## Contribution

A novel multi-model system integrates habitat suitability and chemical quality to guide conservation and cultivation of Alpinia officinarum.

## Key findings

- Future warming shifts suitable habitats for Alpinia officinarum southwestward.
- High-emission scenarios cause severe habitat loss by the 2090s.
- Southeastern Yunnan and northern Hainan are identified as core quality regions.

## Abstract

This research develops an integrated quality assessment framework for Alpinia officinarum Hance, an important medicinal plant in China. By combining multi-model ensemble forecasting of habitat suitability with spatial interpolation of its key bioactive constituent galangin, we project a southwestward shift in suitable habitats under future climate change. The core integrated quality regions were delineated in southeastern Yunnan, southwestern Guangxi, southwestern Guangdong, and northern Hainan. The study provides spatially explicit guidance for the conservation and sustainable cultivation of this species.

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of medicinal plant distributions and their quality responses under climate change is essential for formulating forward-looking conservation and utilization strategies. In response to the increasing depletion of wild resources of Alpinia officinarum Hance, one of the ‘Ten Major Guangdong Medicinal Materials’, this study developed an integrated modeling platform incorporating nine algorithms. These included generalized linear models, machine learning techniques, and a MaxEnt model optimized using ENMeval (Regularization Multiplier (RM) = 3, Feature Class (FC) = LQH). The platform was applied to simulate habitat suitability evolution under current climatic conditions (1970–2000) and for two future periods (2050s: 2041–2060; 2090s: 2081–2100) across four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). Furthermore, Co-kriging interpolation was coupled to conduct a comprehensive quality zoning based on the dual “ecological-chemical” dimension. Analysis of key environmental factors revealed that the distribution of A. officinarum is primarily constrained by hydrothermal conditions, with a suitable annual temperature ranges from 19.96 to 29.05 °C and a dry-season precipitation requirement between 56.64 and 185.65 mm. Model projections indicate that future warming does not promote habitat expansion; instead, it drives a latitudinal shift in the suitability centroid toward lower latitudes. The cumulative effects of different emission pathways vary markedly: the high-emission scenario (SSP585) triggers severe habitat contraction by the 2090s, while habitat loss under the SSP370 scenario remains relatively manageable. By overlaying the spatially heterogeneous distribution of galangin, this study delineated southeastern Yunnan, southeastern Guangxi, southwestern Guangdong, and northern Hainan as core “integrated quality regions”. These findings not only reveal the sensitivity and vulnerability of A. officinarum Hance to climate change but also provide spatially explicit guidance for in situ germplasm conservation and the selection of high-quality cultivation bases.