# Climate change-driven geographical shifts in Aspergillus species and the implications for plant and human health

## TL;DR

This study predicts how climate change will shift the habitats of three Aspergillus species, affecting their spread and impact on crops and human health.

## Contribution

The study uses MaxEnt modeling to predict climate-driven geographical shifts in three pathogenic Aspergillus species.

## Key findings

- A. fumigatus is more suitable in temperate climates, while A. flavus and A. niger thrive in warmer regions.
- Future climate scenarios predict a northward shift in habitat suitability for all three species.
- Habitat shifts reduce overlap with major crop-growing areas like maize and rice.

## Abstract

Aspergillus species cause severe infections and are widespread environmental saprotrophs. Climate change is expected to alter the ecological niches and spread of fungal pathogens. Here, we use a global metabarcoding dataset and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to predict the current and future environmental suitability of three pathogenic Aspergilli: A. fumigatus sensu lato, A. flavus sensu lato, and A. niger sensu lato. We show that the suitability of A. fumigatus is higher in temperate climates, while A. flavus and A. niger are more suitable in warmer regions. Future climate scenarios suggest a northward shift of habitat suitability for all three species, particularly under severe warming. We combine our MaxEnt model with spatial models of crop growing areas and human population, and show that geographical shift will occur on Aspergillus species along different climate scenarios. These predictions can guide experimental validation efforts and provide a base model for further refinement for other pathogenic fungi.

•MaxEnt models reveal poleward habitat shifts of Aspergillus spp. under climate change•A. fumigatus prefers temperate, while A. flavus and A. niger thrive in warmer climates•Climate-driven habitat shifts reduce overlap with maize and rice crop-growing areas•Clinical prevalence of aspergillosis mirrors environmental suitability patterns

MaxEnt models reveal poleward habitat shifts of Aspergillus spp. under climate change

A. fumigatus prefers temperate, while A. flavus and A. niger thrive in warmer climates

Climate-driven habitat shifts reduce overlap with maize and rice crop-growing areas

Clinical prevalence of aspergillosis mirrors environmental suitability patterns

Environmental health; Global change; Mycology