# Temperature and sex ratios at birth

## TL;DR

High temperatures before birth are linked to fewer male births in sub-Saharan Africa and India, affecting maternal and fetal health and gender discrimination practices.

## Contribution

This study reveals how heat exposure during pregnancy affects sex ratios at birth through both biological and behavioral mechanisms.

## Key findings

- High temperatures in the first trimester are linked to fewer male births in sub-Saharan Africa due to increased spontaneous abortions.
- In India, second-trimester heat exposure correlates with fewer male births, likely due to reduced sex-selective abortions.
- Heat exposure increases prenatal mortality and influences family planning behavior, especially in regions with strong son preference.

## Abstract

While some evidence suggests that sex ratios at birth (SRBs) are shaped by environmental and social factors, little is known about the relationship between temperature and sex ratios at birth. We show that high temperatures in the nine months before birth are negatively associated with male births in sub-Saharan Africa and India. The exposure timing demonstrates that ambient heat can increase prenatal mortality in early pregnancy, particularly among males, in both world regions. We also demonstrate that in regions with high son preference, elevated temperatures during windows where sex-selective abortions could take place reduce these abortions. These findings demonstrate that heat exposure may have complex behavioral and biological implications for maternal and fetal health and ramifications on social phenomena such as gender discriminatory practices.

Human sex ratios at birth (SRBs) shape population composition and are closely linked to maternal health and gender discrimination. In the context of environmental change, SRBs may theoretically be skewed by physiological or behavioral responses to exposure to extreme heat. However, evidence for this is limited. In this study, we estimate the effect of prenatal exposure to temperature on birth sex by linking survey data on 5 million live births in 33 sub-Saharan African countries and India with high-resolution temperature data. To distinguish between spontaneous and induced abortions, we exploit sociodemographic differentials, exposure timing, and regional differences in son preference. We find that days with a maximum temperature above 20 °C are negatively associated with male births in both regions. In sub-Saharan Africa, we observe fewer male births after high first-trimester temperature exposure, consistent with increased spontaneous abortions from maternal heat stress. This is particularly true for births by mothers in rural areas, with little formal education, and for higher birth orders. By contrast, in India, we find that second-trimester temperature exposure is associated with fewer male births, consistent with reductions in induced sex-selective abortions. As expected, these reductions are concentrated in high birth orders and older mothers. We also find large reductions in male births by sonless mothers in northern Indian states, where son preference is greater. These findings demonstrate that heat exposure harms maternal health, increases prenatal mortality, and influences family planning behavior, leading to a complex effect on SRBs.