# Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Invasive Plant Alternanthera pungens Kunth Under Climate Change Scenarios in China

## TL;DR

This study predicts how a fast-spreading invasive plant in China will expand its range due to climate change.

## Contribution

This is the first study to model the future spread of Alternanthera pungens in China under climate change scenarios.

## Key findings

- A. pungens is predicted to expand northward in China by up to 41.4% by the 2070s.
- Temperature seasonality and cold quarter temperature are the most important predictors of A. pungens distribution.
- Southern China currently has the most suitable habitat for A. pungens.

## Abstract

Alternanthera pungens
Kunth is considered to be less invasive compared to its exotic congener
A. philoxeroides
(Mart.) Griseb. However, in recent 10 years, it has spread rapidly in Yunnan Province, China. To better understand the species' invasion and distribution, we simulated the potential distribution of
A. pungens
in China using a MaxEnt model under the current climate scenario and several future climate scenarios, with varying emissions and time frames. The model achieved excellent prediction performance, with
A. pungens
having an area under the curve value and true skill statistics value of 0.979 and 0.910, respectively. Temperature seasonality and mean temperature of coldest quarter were the greatest predictive environmental variables, with a cumulative contribution of more than 85.3% and a cumulative permutation importance of more than 89.8%. The suitable geographic region of
A. pungens
is concentrated in southern China. Under the current climate scenarios, projected areas ranked as highly and moderately suitable for
A. pungens
accounted for 0.31% and 1.03% of the Chinese mainland area, respectively. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable areas for
A. pungens
in China will expand northwards, with a maximum projected growth rate of 41.4% in the 2070s. This study was the first to show that
A. pungens
is predicted to expand its range in China in the future. Early warning and monitoring of
A. pungens
should be pursued, with greater vigilance in southern China to prevent its further spread and invasion.

The potential distribution of
A. pungens
in China was simulated using a MaxEnt model under current and future climate scenarios.