The past, present, and future of peaking thermal power plants in the United States

TL;DR

This paper examines the role of peaking power plants in the U.S., their current and future compositions, and how different technologies compete based on cost and usage.

Contribution

The study provides new insights into the economic competitiveness of peaking technologies and future projections for U.S. peaking capacity.

Findings

Combustion turbines outcompete combined cycle plants below 12%–17% annual capacity factor.

Peaking capacity in the U.S. could grow from 280 GW today to 460–770 GW by 2050.

Future peaking fleets may include a wider range of resources beyond traditional gas CTs.

Abstract

Today’s power systems rely on “peaker plants” to reliably serve load during peak demand periods. In this study we consider the present competitiveness of different peaking options, how much and what kinds of plants have provided U.S. peaking capacity, and potential future peaking fleet compositions. We explore how capital intensity impacts the breakeven capacity factor between two potential resources: combustion turbines (CTs) and combined cycle plants (CCs). CTs outcompete CCs below 12%–17% annual capacity factor at today’s prices, but can shift with changes to fuel or start costs. Historically, gas CTs and petroleum steam plants most closely fit the role of peakers. Peaking capacity could grow from approximately 280 GW today to 460–770 GW in 2050 composed of a wider range of resources. We conclude by discussing implications of this shift, with a focus on the potential planning considerations for shifting to a greater utilization of CCs for peaking needs.

Energy management; energy resources; energy systems

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