Declining Performance on the Qualifying Examination: Modeling of a Potential Inflection Point in Emergency Medicine

TL;DR

This study found a significant drop in Emergency Medicine exam pass rates in 2022, linked to factors like medical degree type and pandemic-era training.

Contribution

The study identifies a new inflection point in 2022 and links it to physician characteristics not previously analyzed in this context.

Findings

Three significant inflection points in exam pass rates were identified: 1988, 2003, and 2022.

Pass rates declined sharply after 2022, with a steeper drop from 2022 to 2024 compared to earlier periods.

MD graduates and those trained during the pandemic showed lesser declines in performance post-2022.

Abstract

To investigate longitudinal trends in the American Board of Emergency Medicine (ABEM) Qualifying Examination (QE) performance, identify statistically significant inflection points in pass rates, and determine factors associated with the recent decline observed in 2022.

This was a retrospective, observational study conducted in 2 phases. Phase 1 analyzed all QE attempts from 1980 to 2024 (n = 83,254) to identify changepoints using segmented regression and Bayes factor comparisons. Phase 2 focused on QE attempts surrounding the most recent changepoint from 2016 to 2024 (n = 23,784) and used multilevel nonlinear piecewise growth models to examine the association between physician characteristics and QE pass rates before and after the 2022 changepoint.

Three statistically significant changepoints were identified: 1988, 2003, and 2022. Although increases in pass rates were noted in 1988 and 2003, 2022 was marked by a decline in pass rates with a steeper drop post-2022 (slope from 2016 to 2022 = −0.17 vs slope 2022 to 2024 = −0.67). From 2016 to 2022, MD graduates had a lesser decline in performance compared with non-MD peers. After 2022, those trained during the COVID pandemic also experienced a lesser decline.

ABEM QE pass rates experienced 3 major inflection points since 1980, with the most recent occurring in 2022 and representing a meaningful decline. Physician-level characteristics, particularly medical school degree type and COVID-era training, were significantly associated with this trend.

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