# Seasonal Drivers of Density in a Subarctic Population of Northern Red‐Backed Voles

## TL;DR

This study shows that northern red-backed vole populations in Denali National Park fluctuate cyclically every 2–4 years and are influenced by spruce seed production and harsh autumn conditions.

## Contribution

The study identifies environmental and density-dependent factors influencing vole population cycles in a subarctic ecosystem.

## Key findings

- Vole populations showed cyclic fluctuations with a 2–4 year period.
- White spruce seed production positively influenced vole density.
- Harsh autumn conditions and density dependence reduced vole density in the following season.

## Abstract

Northern red‐backed voles (
Clethrionomys rutilus
) are an important species in the boreal forest ecosystem, both as herbivores and as a key food source for many mammalian and avian predators. They exhibit dramatic inter‐ and intra‐annual population fluctuations, for which causes are not entirely known. We monitored northern red‐backed vole densities in Denali National Park and Preserve through time with the goal of examining how environmental factors influenced density over time. Using a 30‐year record of mark‐recapture data, we used spatially explicit capture‐recapture methods to estimate autumn and early summer densities each year. We assessed cyclic patterns in density, variation in amplitude, and any periodicity of population fluctuations using post hoc linear modeling. We found that the vole population appeared to be cyclic with a 2–4 year period, although the pattern varied somewhat among sampling sites. Our results indicated an association between white spruce (
Picea glauca
) seed production and vole density, implying white spruce seeds were either an important source of food during winter seasons, or that the environmental triggers that promote high seed fall were also associated with increased vole density. We also found a negative effect of an autumn harshness index, indicating winter conditions play a role in vole density in the following season. Finally, we found evidence of a negative density‐dependent relationship between autumn and early summer. Together, these findings suggest a system in which density dependence and cyclic relationships are irregular but highly influential, with environmental effects capable of enhancing or moderating their impact. Continued monitoring of voles, alongside more thorough assessments of environmental conditions, may provide additional insight into the complex population dynamics of this species.

In this study, we analyzed 30 years of northern red‐backed vole population data from Denali National Park to examine how environmental factors influenced density over time. We found that this population showed cyclic population fluctuations with a 2–4 year period, with some variation between sampling sites, and that densities were positively associated with white spruce seed production and negatively influenced by harsh autumn conditions. This, coupled with evidence of density dependence between autumn and early summer, suggests a system in which density dependence and cyclic relationships are irregular but highly influential, with environmental effects capable of enhancing or moderating their impact.