# The global burden of aortic aneurysm attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2021: Current trends and projections for 2036

## TL;DR

This study shows that smoking causes aortic aneurysms, with a global decline in deaths but rising risks in some regions, especially in low-middle income areas.

## Contribution

The study provides new global projections and regional insights into smoking-related aortic aneurysm trends from 1990 to 2036.

## Key findings

- In 2021, smoking caused 47,538 aortic aneurysm deaths globally, with a declining trend from 1990 to 2021.
- Low-middle SDI regions saw a rising ASMR for smoking-related aortic aneurysms, while high SDI areas experienced a decline.
- Males consistently had higher ASMR and ASDR than females, and future projections show regional disparities persisting.

## Abstract

Smoking is a major risk factor for aortic aneurysm (AA). This cross-sectional study used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data to examine trends in smoking-related AA and project future trends.

We conducted a secondary analysis on the GBD 2021 dataset. Data on mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) associated with AA attributable to smoking from GBD. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was employed to assess burden trends from 1990 to 2021. The autoregressive integrated sliding average (ARIMA) model was utilized to project disease trends from 2022 to 2036. Decomposition analysis and frontier analysis were employed to comprehensively examine the data.

Globally in 2021, there were 47538 deaths (95% UI: 39480–56008) from smoking-attributable AA, with an ASMR of 0.56 per 100000 (95% UI: 0.46–0.66) and 1157488 DALYs (95% UI: 989966–1325831). The ASMR showed a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2021 (EAPC= -2.17; 95% CI: -2.30 – -2.04). However, there were significant differences between regions, with the burden of deaths in high sociodemographic index (SDI) areas accounting for 40.3% of the global total, while ASMR in low-middle SDI areas rose (EAPC=0.99; 95% CI: 0.94–1.03). The point estimates for ASMR and ASDR were consistently greater in males compared to females throughout the study period. Projections indicate a continued global decline in ASMR and ASDR over the next 15 years, but the burden would gradually rise in Central Asia, East Asia, and South Asia.

Smoking remains a significant preventable risk factor for AA, with substantial sex and regional disparities. Targeted public health strategies are urgently needed to address rising burdens in specific regions and reduce health inequalities.