# Predicting energy prices and renewable energy adoption through an optimized tree-based learning framework with explainable artificial intelligence

## TL;DR

This paper uses advanced machine learning to predict energy prices and renewable energy adoption, identifying key factors like fossil fuel use and carbon emissions.

## Contribution

The novel contribution is an optimized tree-based learning framework with explainable AI for energy forecasting.

## Key findings

- Renewable energy predictions are most influenced by fossil fuel dependency and carbon emissions.
- Optimization algorithms improve predictive accuracy and model robustness.
- Consumption intensity and environmental indicators shape energy price and adoption trends.

## Abstract

This research offers a comprehensive analysis of global energy consumption, focusing on predicting two key metrics: the Energy Price Index and the Renewable Energy Share. The study employs advanced Machine Learning (ML) regression techniques, all further optimized using metaheuristic algorithms. In addition, a primary objective of this study is to determine which variables most significantly affect model performance and predictive accuracy. Through SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) and CAM (Cosine Amplitude Method) sensitivity analyses, the study systematically interprets model outputs and quantifies the influence of each input feature. Findings demonstrate that, according to the SHAP-based model interpretation, the prediction of Renewable Energy Share is most strongly influenced by fossil fuel dependency and carbon emissions. These results underscore the pivotal role of consumption intensity and environmental indicators in shaping both global energy price trajectories and renewable energy adoption rates. Integrating optimization algorithms with advanced models improved both predictive accuracy and model robustness. The resulting analytical framework provides a technically rigorous and interpretable approach to global energy forecasting. Such a framework is valuable for informing energy policy, supporting sustainability strategies, and enabling stakeholders to monitor environmental impacts and optimize energy system performance. By leveraging data-driven insights, this study advances practical tools and methodologies for strategic planning in the context of a sustainable global energy future.