Potential economy-wide impacts of an African swine fever outbreak in the United States
Tais C. de Menezes, Amanda M. Countryman, Dustin L. Pendell, Jonathan Rushton, Jimmy Tickel, Heather Simmons

TL;DR
This study estimates the economic impact of an African swine fever outbreak in the U.S., showing that large outbreaks could cause billions in welfare losses and disrupt global pork markets.
Contribution
The novelty lies in quantifying economy-wide impacts of ASF using a CGE model under various outbreak and trade restriction scenarios.
Findings
Large ASF outbreaks could reduce U.S. pork production by 7.25%-10.8% and increase pork prices by 6.5%.
U.S. welfare losses could reach $10.9-$11.4 billion in large outbreak scenarios, with global hog and pork prices rising by up to 3.69%.
Early detection and regionalization strategies could significantly reduce economic and market disruptions.
Abstract
African swine fever (ASF) poses a major threat to the U.S. pork sector, with potentially large spillovers through domestic markets and international trade. To inform preparedness and policy design, we quantify the economy-wide consequences of a hypothetical ASF outbreak under alternative scenarios of production losses and export restrictions. We use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate four hypothetical ASF scenarios that vary by outbreak size and export restrictions. The model endogenously captures adjustments in production, prices, bilateral trade flows, and welfare, and we assess robustness using systematic sensitivity analysis. Small outbreak scenarios generate limited sectoral disruption and no substantial GDP effects, with U.S. welfare losses of 563 million. Large outbreak scenarios reduce U.S. hog production by 7.34%–8.57% and pork production by…
Genes, proteins, chemicals, diseases, species, mutations and cell lines named across the full text — each resolved to its canonical identifier and authoritative record.
Click any figure to enlarge with its caption.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5Peer Reviews
No public reviews on file for this paper yet. If you reviewed it on a platform where reviews are public (OpenReview, ICLR, NeurIPS, ICML), you can paste yours below so the community can read it here.
Videos
No videos yet. Explain this paper in a talk, walkthrough, or lecture? Add one.
Taxonomy
TopicsAnimal Disease Management and Epidemiology · Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets · Viral Infections and Immunology Research
