Effects of non-minimum wages on health: A narrative literature review of short- and long-run studies using causal inference or longitudinal data in high-income countries

TL;DR

This review examines how non-minimum wages affect health in high-income countries using causal and longitudinal studies, finding stronger long-term links between higher wages and better health.

Contribution

The paper provides the first narrative review on non-minimum wages and health, emphasizing causal inference and longitudinal data.

Findings

Most studies, especially long-run analyses, associate lower wages with poorer health outcomes.

Causal models reduce reverse causality bias, showing clearer wage-health relationships.

Long-term evidence supports the idea that higher wages improve health more than short-term effects.

Abstract

We reviewed studies examining effects of non–minimum wages on health using causal inference or longitudinal data in high-income countries. We excluded studies on direct effects of minimum wages and on analyses using cross-sectional data without causal designs.

Our review covered studies from public health, epidemiology, social sciences, and statistics, and published between 1974 and November 2025. Searches were conducted in Google Scholar and PubMed and supplemented by reference and citation tracing. We defined short-run (≤2 years) and long-run (≥5 years).

Thirty-eight studies met inclusion criteria: 20 short-run causal analyses, four short-run longitudinal studies, 12 long-run studies using causal or longitudinal methods, and two encompassing both timeframes. Instrumental variable models were most common, although many instruments (e.g., education and work experience) were invalid. Across 20+ health outcomes—most frequently self-rated health, mortality, and work limitations—results were heterogeneous. We identified recurrent methodological limitations and highlight priorities for future research.

Although findings lack consensus, most studies, particularly long-run analyses, report that lower wages are associated with poorer health, consistent with the allostatic load and Friedman's permanent-income hypotheses. These findings carry implications for minimum-wage-and-health studies in which null findings predominate because those are only short run.

•Reviews exist for minimum wages but not for non-minimum wages, i.e. most workers.•Causal models eliminate reverse causality bias whereby poor health harms wages.•We find 38 studies: 24 short-run, 12 long-run, and 2 both short- and long-run.•Stronger evidence finds higher wages improve health in long- than short-run.•Evidence helps explain predominate null effects found in minimum wage studies.

Reviews exist for minimum wages but not for non-minimum wages, i.e. most workers.

Causal models eliminate reverse causality bias whereby poor health harms wages.

We find 38 studies: 24 short-run, 12 long-run, and 2 both short- and long-run.

Stronger evidence finds higher wages improve health in long- than short-run.

Evidence helps explain predominate null effects found in minimum wage studies.

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