Modelling land use-induced foraging distributions of flying foxes and emerging spillover risks

TL;DR

This study models how land-use changes affect flying foxes' foraging and increase zoonotic disease risks, showing that reforestation can help reduce these risks.

Contribution

A novel individual-based model connects land-use changes to zoonotic spillover risks from flying foxes.

Findings

Urbanization-driven habitat fragmentation significantly increases spillover risk.

Reforestation, especially in agricultural areas, is most effective at reducing spillover risk.

Forest quality influences how urbanization affects zoonotic spillover intensity.

Abstract

Despite their critical role as reservoir hosts for many zoonotic diseases, the impact of land-use and land-cover changes (LCLUC) on flying foxes' interactions with humans remains unclear, posing a potential public health risk. To address this, we apply optimal foraging theory and individual-based modelling to simulate flying-fox movement and population dynamics under various LCLUC scenarios. After validating our model against available data, we analyze the effects of agriculturalization, urbanization, forest fragmentation, and reforestation on flying-fox densities across synthetic landscapes of urban, forest, orchard, and water-body habitats. Our findings indicate that habitat disruption—particularly fragmentation through urbanization—significantly increases the risk of zoonotic spillover events by increasing contacts between species. Scenarios of forest degradation reveal that ecologically degraded forest environments can further exacerbate this risk. Additionally, we find that reforestation can alleviate spillover risk. These results underscore the importance of conservation and habitat restoration as critical strategies for mitigating zoonotic disease transmission.

•Individual-based model links land-use to zoonotic spillover risk from flying foxes.•Urbanization-driven fragmentation produces the largest increase in spillover risk.•Reforestation, especially of agricultural areas, most effectively reduces risk.•Forest quality (resource-rich vs. poor) mediates how urbanization affects spillover.•Model reveals how landscape configuration shapes human–bat contact intensity.

Individual-based model links land-use to zoonotic spillover risk from flying foxes.

Urbanization-driven fragmentation produces the largest increase in spillover risk.

Reforestation, especially of agricultural areas, most effectively reduces risk.

Forest quality (resource-rich vs. poor) mediates how urbanization affects spillover.

Model reveals how landscape configuration shapes human–bat contact intensity.

Figures