Geographic variation in supply, demand, and adequacy of the obstetrics and gynecology physician workforce: forecasts and shortage risks in the United States

TL;DR

This study forecasts a shortage of obstetrics and gynecology physicians in the US, especially in non-metropolitan areas and the West.

Contribution

The study provides new geographic projections of OGP workforce supply and demand in the US through 2037.

Findings

OGP demand is projected to increase while supply decreases, leading to a workforce adequacy decline from 93.4% to 81.7%.

Non-metropolitan areas and the West face the greatest shortages, with Utah, Idaho, and Arizona having the lowest projected adequacy.

The Northeast is expected to maintain the highest OGP workforce adequacy compared to other regions.

Abstract

This study assessed geographic variations in the supply, demand, and adequacy of the United States (US) obstetrics and gynecology physician (OGP) workforce.

This was a cross-sectional analysis of OGPs using the Health Workforce Simulation Model. Supply and demand were defined as the numbers of full-time equivalent (FTE) OGPs working and needed, respectively. Adequacy was defined as the ratio of supply to demand. Comparisons were made using Chi-squared tests, and linear regression was used to analyze OGP workforce trends.

From 2025 to 2037, the demand for OGPs is projected to increase (52,620–54,020 FTEs, 2.7% increase, p < 0.001) while the supply of OGPs is projected to decrease (49,170–44,130 FTEs, 10.3% decrease, p < 0.001). As a result, OGP workforce adequacy is projected to decrease over the study period from 93.4% to 81.7% (P < 0.001). By 2037, the West had the lowest OGP workforce adequacy and the Northeast had the highest adequacy (74.4% vs 98.6%, P < 0.001). Non-metropolitan areas were projected to have lower OGP workforce adequacy than metropolitan areas (51.4% vs 85.1%, p < 0.001). The states with the lowest projected OGP workforce adequacy were Utah (49.3%), Idaho (51.5%), and Arizona (58.3%) in 2037.

OGP workforce supply is expected to fall short of anticipated demand, with uneven geographic distribution across the US. Addressing this imbalance will require strategic planning to expand the OGP workforce equitably, especially in non-metropolitan areas, the West, and certain identified states like Utah and Idaho.

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