# Advancing Social Life Cycle Assessment: A Novel Approach to Uncertainty Analysis

## TL;DR

This paper introduces a new method to account for uncertainty in social life cycle assessments, improving the reliability of social risk evaluations in manufacturing.

## Contribution

The paper proposes a novel uncertainty analysis methodology for social life cycle assessment characterization factors.

## Key findings

- The cellulose-based material showed lower social impacts in ship counter bars compared to conventional materials.
- The methodology is easily applicable and provides consistent results across different case studies.
- Uncertainty modeling enhances the transparency and robustness of social performance evaluations.

## Abstract

Social life cycle assessment is gaining importance, being
recognized
as a well-established methodology to evaluate potential social risks
that might occur in value chains. Several studies have been conducted
in applying traditional social databases (e.g., Social Hotspot Database)
to assess social risks, but these studies generally do not consider
the uncertainty associated with the characterization factors used
in the models. This type of uncertainty is intrinsic to social risk
modeling, as the underlying indicators and expert-based assessments
are inherently variable. Therefore, this paper aims to address this
literature gap by proposing an uncertainty analysis methodology that
explicitly accounts for the uncertainty associated with the characterization
factors. It represents one of the first studies to model such uncertainty
directly within the context of the Social Life Cycle Assessment. The
methodology will be applied to assess the social performance of two
components, a car dashboard and a ship counter bar, manufactured using
conventional materials (ABS and reinforced gypsum) and an innovative
cellulose-based material. The results show that the methodology is
easily employed and applicable to different case studies. The cellulose-based
material exhibited significantly lower potential social impacts in
the ship counter bar and consistently higher impacts in the car dashboard
when compared to conventional materials, and these findings remained
consistent even when accounting for uncertainty in the characterization
factors. The approach also quantifies the confidence associated with
each comparison, reinforcing the robustness of the conclusions. By
integrating uncertainty modeling into the Social Life Cycle Assessment,
the study enhances the transparency and interpretability of social
performance evaluations across different value chains.