# Impact of Fiscal Policy for Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Reducing the Burden of Disease and Healthcare Costs in Brazil: A Simulation Study

## TL;DR

A 20% tax on sugary drinks in Brazil could reduce obesity, prevent diseases, and save healthcare costs, especially for men.

## Contribution

This study uses a simulation model to project the health and economic impacts of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax in Brazil.

## Key findings

- A 20% tax could reduce obesity prevalence by 1.7% in men and 1.5% in women.
- The tax could save Int$520 million in healthcare costs and prevent thousands of diabetes and heart disease cases.
- Health benefits were greater for higher-income groups compared to lower-income groups.

## Abstract

Background/Objectives: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption has been linked to obesity, metabolic diseases, and rising healthcare costs. This study aimed to assess the impact of a 20% excise tax on SSBs in Brazil on obesity/overweight prevalence, seven musculoskeletal and cardiovascular diseases, and related healthcare costs, with their associated impacts on health inequalities. Methods: Using 2017/2018 Brazilian Household Budget Survey data for baseline consumption and own- and cross-price elasticities for taxed beverages, we estimated changes in caloric consumption for the entire population and for lower- and upper-income quartiles. The PRIMEtime dynamic individual-level simulation model projected body weight changes, lifetime Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs), healthcare costs (discounted at 5%), and disease cases (20-year horizon). Results: A 20% excise SSB tax was projected to reduce obesity prevalence by 1.7 percentage points in men and 1.5 percentage points in women, from baseline rates of 19.8% and 23.6%, respectively. Lifetime gains were estimated at 17,878 QALYs per million men and 12,181 per million women, alongside healthcare cost savings of Int$520 million. Impacts varied by income, with smaller health gains in the lowest quartile and higher among the wealthiest. Over 20 years, the tax could avert 1784 cases of type 2 diabetes mellitus/100,000 adults (52% in men) and 1070 cases of ischemic heart disease/100,000 adults (80% in men). Conclusions: A 20% excise SSB tax in Brazil could yield large health and cost benefits. With the recent approval of the Selective Tax under Complementary Law 214/2025, Brazil has a timely opportunity to translate these projected benefits into effective public health policy.