# Critical Hypercytokinemia in Sepsis and Septic Shock: Identifying Interleukin-6 Thresholds Beyond Which Mortality Risk Exceeded Survival Probability

## TL;DR

This study identifies a critical threshold of IL-6 levels in sepsis patients that strongly predicts mortality, suggesting a potential biomarker for targeted therapies.

## Contribution

The study identifies a specific IL-6 threshold (15,000 pg/mL) that reliably predicts mortality in sepsis patients, offering a novel clinical biomarker.

## Key findings

- An IL-6 threshold of 15,000 pg/mL was associated with significantly increased mortality (OR 2.22).
- Patients with IL-6 > 15,000 pg/mL had significantly reduced survival (p < 0.0001).
- Non-survivors had higher median IL-6 levels (2137 pg/mL) compared to survivors.

## Abstract

Introduction: Patients with extremely elevated IL-6 levels remain poorly characterized, and no specific plasma concentration has been established to reliably predict mortality or guide immunomodulatory interventions. We hypothesized that extreme hypercytokinemia is associated with increased mortality in sepsis. The primary objective was to identify, in patients with hyperinflammatory endotype, an IL-6 threshold associated with a significantly elevated risk of death. Methods: We conducted a retrospective, single-center observational study based on a historical cohort of adult patients with consecutive activation of the in-hospital sepsis code, a prospective and standardized institutional care pathway, at Vall d’Hebron University Hospital between July 2018 and December 2024. Patients fulfilling Sepsis-2 diagnostic criteria and criteria for severe sepsis or septic shock were eligible. Plasma interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels were routinely determined in all patients. The analysis included patients with complete clinical and laboratory data available in the study database. To identify the IL-6 threshold associated with critical risk of death, a cumulative conditional relative frequency analysis was performed. A quantile-based analysis was conducted using predefined intervals of 1000 pg/mL and 15,000 pg/mL. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify clinical and laboratory parameters independently associated with IL-6 > 15,000 pg/mL and outcome. Results are presented as odds ratios (ORs). Survival differences were assessed using Kaplan–Meier analysis. Results: Overall mortality was 31% in the 1669 patients analyzed. Median IL-6 concentration was 772 pg/mL (IQR: 164–8750 pg/mL) with significantly higher levels in non-survivors (2137 pg/mL, IQR: 267–34,758). A critical IL-6 cutoff of 14,930 pg/mL was identified, which was rounded to 15,000 pg/mL for clinical applicability. IL-6 > 15,000 pg/mL was associated with increased mortality (OR 2.22, 95% CI: 1.12–5.36). Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed significantly reduced survival in patients above this IL-6 threshold (p < 0.0001). Conclusions: In this cohort of patients with severe sepsis or septic shock, plasma IL-6 levels > 15,000 pg/mL defined a critical threshold beyond which mortality risk exceeded survival probability. Critical hypercytokinemia may serve as a clinically relevant biomarker to identify patients with sepsis and multiorgan dysfunction who could benefit from precision immunomodulatory therapies.