# When Every Minute Counts: Predicting Pre-Hospital Deliveries and Neonatal Risk in Emergency Medical Services Using Data-Driven Models

## TL;DR

This study identifies factors that predict pre-hospital deliveries and neonatal risks during emergency childbirth, aiming to improve EMS response and outcomes.

## Contribution

The study introduces data-driven models to predict pre-hospital deliveries and neonatal risks using real-world EMS data.

## Key findings

- Ruptured membranes and second-stage labor strongly predict pre-hospital delivery.
- Preterm birth and absence of fetal movements are linked to worse neonatal outcomes.
- Fewer previous pregnancies increase the likelihood of pre-hospital delivery.

## Abstract

Background/Objectives: Pre-hospital delivery is an unpredictable event posing significant challenges for Emergency Medical Services (EMS) teams. Despite advances in perinatal care, emergency deliveries outside the hospital environment remain associated with increased maternal and neonatal risks. This study aimed to identify predictors of out-of-hospital delivery in EMS-attended labor cases and determinants of neonatal condition immediately after delivery. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 5097 EMS records of laboring women in Poland from August 2021 to January 2022, of which 2927 were included in the final study sample. Multivariate logistic regression models with multiple imputation for missing data were used to identify predictors of pre-hospital delivery and adverse neonatal condition (Apgar ≤ 7) in EMS-managed childbirths. Results: Pre-hospital delivery was strongly associated with second-stage labor (OR ≈ 535; p < 0.0001), ruptured membranes (OR ≈ 8.7; p < 0.0001), and fewer previous pregnancies (OR = 0.86; p = 0.018), and showed a trend with higher maternal heart rate (OR = 1.015; p = 0.083). Neonatal status classified as Apgar ≤ 7 was significantly associated with preterm birth (p < 0.0001), absence of fetal movements (OR ≈ 26.4; p = 0.025), and complications during pregnancy (p = 0.036). Complications during labor and lack of prenatal care were not significantly associated with increased risk of pre-hospital delivery in the model. Conclusions: Rupture of membranes, second-stage labor, and fewer previous pregnancies are significant predictors of pre-hospital delivery in EMS-managed cases. Absence of fetal movements and preterm gestation predict worse neonatal outcomes (Apgar ≤ 7). Early identification of these factors may enhance prehospital perinatal care and improve maternal and neonatal prognosis.