# Spatial Analysis and Spread Monitoring of a Population of Juniperus macrocarpa Sm. Across Coastal Dune Systems in Northern Tuscany (Italy)

## TL;DR

This study tracks the expansion of Juniperus macrocarpa shrubs in coastal dunes of northern Tuscany over ten years, showing significant growth in previously unstable areas.

## Contribution

The study reveals that Juniperus macrocarpa can expand beyond its typical ecological niche under favorable coastal conditions and low human disturbance.

## Key findings

- Juniperus macrocarpa expanded significantly from inner dunes to seaward dunes over ten years.
- Abundance and cover increased most in shifting dune belts, with up to 1220% increase in abundance and 4500% in cover.
- The expansion is attributed to favorable meso-Mediterranean conditions and low anthropogenic disturbance.

## Abstract

This study investigates the recent population dynamics of the shrub Juniperus macrocarpa Sm. along a sandy shoreline within a protected area of northern Tuscany (Italy). Changes in population structure were assessed by comparing data collected in 2013 and 2023, integrating remote sensing analyses with field surveys and focusing on individual abundance and plant cover. Results indicate a marked expansion of J. macrocarpa from the consolidated inner dune towards the foredune, with particularly strong increases in the shifting dune belt. This pattern reveals an active colonization process, with a higher numerical increase in the seaward belts than in the internal consolidated dunes. Although J. macrocarpa is generally considered a late-successional species constrained by strong summer aridity and high insolation in thermo-Mediterranean environments, the meso-Mediterranean coastal conditions of northern Tuscany may mitigate these limiting factors, allowing a wider ecological amplitude and promoting population expansion.

Background: Juniperus macrocarpa Sm. is a key shrub species of the Mediterranean coastal dune systems. The species, considered vulnerable, often shows fragmented or declining populations due to coastal erosion and human pressure. However, along a protected stretch of the northern Tuscany coast it displays an opposite trend, with an apparent expansion of the species. Methods: To assess recent population dynamics, we compared high-resolution aerial imagery from 2013 with UAV orthophotos from 2023 across two dune systems of the Migliarino–San Rossore–Massaciuccoli Regional Park (Italy). The dune profile was divided into three belts (B1: shifting dune; B2: consolidated grassland dune; B3: consolidated juniper dune). A total of 368 plots (10 × 10 m) were analyzed to quantify temporal changes in individual abundance and vegetation cover. Results: Over the ten-year period, total abundance increased from 99 to 342 individuals (+245%) at Lecciona and from 117 to 324 individuals (+177%) at Marina di Vecchiano. Mean cover per plot increased significantly at both sites (overall p < 0.001), with the strongest proportional increases recorded in the seaward belts (B1: up to +1220% in abundance and +4500% in cover) revealing a clear shift from an inner-dune concentration in 2013 to a more homogeneous spatial distribution across the entire dune system in 2023. Conclusions: Under conditions of low anthropogenic disturbance, shoreline stability, or geomorphological progradation, J. macrocarpa is able to expand well beyond its recognized ecological niche. These findings demonstrate the central role of geomorphological and disturbance regimes in driving coastal dune vegetation dynamics and highlight the need for adaptive, site-specific management strategies for the long-term conservation of priority habitat 2250/EUNIS N1B.